Russia Security Update: January 26-February 2, 2016

Russia heightened its aggressive posture toward NATO as the U.S. prepared new deterrence measures in Europe. The U.S. Defense of Department requested funding to deploy an additional 3,000-5,000 troops to Europe in its FY 2017 budget request in a show of support to NATO allies threatened by possible Russian military aggression. NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg called for the establishment of a “cooperative and constructive” relationship with Russia, which he said required bolstering NATO defenses in order to gain Russia’s respect. Russia escalated its confrontation with NATO in advance of U.S. deterrence efforts. A Russian warplane violated Turkish airspace for the first time since Turkey downed a Russian bomber in November 2015, marking a new escalation in Moscow’s confrontation with Ankara. The Russian Ministry of Defense subsequently announced the deployment of advanced Su-35 air superiority fighters to the Russian airbase in Latakia Province, Syria, signaling Russia’s intent to continue provoking Turkey and projecting force along NATO’s southern flank. Russia also announced plans to deploy air superiority fighters to the occupied Crimean Peninsula on January 29, days after a Russian jet conducted a dangerous maneuver in proximity to a U.S. reconnaissance plane in international airspace over the Black Sea. The Kremlin continued to challenge NATO through political means, inviting a delegation from aspiring NATO member Montenegro’s pro-Russian opposition to meet with a member of Vladimir Putin’s inner circle. The Kremlin’s escalated confrontation with NATO coincides with mounting domestic economic challenges driven by low oil prices, which have forced Russia to consider cooperating with its geostrategic competitors in the Persian Gulf and selling major state-owned enterprises.

By Hugo Spaulding and Franklin Holcomb