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Russian President Vladimir Putin launched a new phase in his campaign to retain power after 2024 when his current term expires. Putin offered Russians a revised social contract. Putin is reconfiguring the balance of power within the Russian government as he seeks to carve out an optimal spot for himself. Putin is in uncharted territory, trying to create a new transition model for Russia.
Turkey is preparing to launch a new military operation in Syria that will undermine key U.S. national security interests. The Syrian Democratic Forces will be forced to de-prioritize the fight against ISIS while key oil infrastructure in Eastern Deir ez-Zour Province will be put at greater risk of targeting by the pro-Assad coalition.
ISIS has mounted low-level efforts to replenish its ranks from members held in detention facilities and displacement camps across Syria and Iraq since late 2018. ISIS is likely preparing more coordinated and sophisticated operations to free its detained members in Iraq and Syria.
ISIS’s latest global campaign began in late April 2019, two weeks before the start of Ramadan on May 5. ISIS has orchestrated an annual campaign of intensified attacks around the Islamic holy month of Ramadan since 2012.
Growing Turkish-Russian military cooperation in Syria is a dangerous sign of a wider shift to a closer strategic relationship between Turkey and Russia.
U.S. President Donald Trump’s recent decision to keep a residual force of at least 400 troops in Syria prevents the immediate takeover of valuable natural resources and infrastructure in Eastern Syria by Iran, Assad, and Russia. These actors nonetheless still have options that could lead to the defeat or expulsion of U.S. forces.
The latest Syria Situation Report Map from ISW and Syria Direct details key developments in the war in Syria, including an uptick in violence in opposition-held Idlib Province.
ISIS’s post-Caliphate insurgency in Iraq is accelerating faster than efforts to prevent it. ISIS is re-establishing capable insurgent networks in multiple historic strongholds, setting the conditions for future offensive operations against the Government of Iraq.
The Kremlin is successfully increasing its political influence in Moldova. The pro-Kremlin Party of Socialists of the Republic of Moldova won the largest share in the February 24 Moldovan Parliamentary Elections.
The U.S. needs Turkey as an active partner despite its slide into authoritarianism under Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. The U.S. should adopt an interest-based approach towards Turkey that shapes its behavior in line with shared strategic objectives such as reversing the gains of Iran and Russia in the Middle East.