ISIS's Regional Campaign: April 2016


ISIS continued to pursue its regional campaign objectives of establishing affiliates and increasing disorder throughout historically Muslim lands. ISIS is preparing for a global surge of activities before and during the Islamic holy month of Ramadan, which will take place between June 6 and July 5, 2016. ISIS will likely aim to launch new offensives in North Africa and declare new affiliates in Southeast Asia and Bangladesh in order to maintain overall momentum in those regions. This strategy will also seek to establish resilience elsewhere in the region as it faces challenges in Iraq and Syria. ISIS may soon face a strong challenge from Western-backed Libyan armed groups, which are already preparing an offensive on Sirte, the group’s only urban center outside of Iraq and Syria. ISIS may fight to preserve control over Sirte, which gives the group organizational resiliency, or may retreat to southern desert sanctuaries to develop a new safe haven. Either course of action will likely encourage ISIS to deepen its relationships with jihadist groups across North Africa. ISIS also continues to claim attacks against security forces in North Sinai, prompting the U.S. and other members of the Multinational Force & Observer mission to reduce their presence in the area.