Syria Project

Syria 90 - Day Strategic Forecast: The Regime and Allies

Grand Strategic Objectives:
• [Syrian Regime] Preserve the rule of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad in a post-war Syria encompassing the entire pre-war Syrian state
• [Iran] Preserve a viable Syrian regime led by Syrian President Bashar al-Assad as a key member of the ‘Axis of Resistance’; achieve strategic positioning against Israel
• [Russia] Preserve the Syrian state – not necessarily Syrian President Bashar al-Assad – as a key foothold in the Middle East and an ally against terrorism
• [Hezbollah] Prevent the spread of the Syrian Civil War into Lebanese core terrain
Strategic Objectives:
• [Syrian Regime] Maintain Syrian territorial integrity through an ‘army in all corners’; consolidate Syrian civilian population in regime-held areas; bolster international and domestic legitimacy as ruler of Syria.
• [Iran] Position against Israel in southern Syria along the Golan Heights; preserve access to supply lines from Syria to Hezbollah in Lebanon; develop network of Syrian proxies to maintain Iranian influence if regime falls
• [Iran/Russia] Enable Syrian regime to defend core terrain along Syrian central corridor
• [Hezbollah] Secure Lebanese border region against incursion by militant groups

Russian Deployment in Syria: Putin’s Middle East Game Changer

Satellite imagery provided by AllSourceAnalysis confirms the recent arrival of Russian main battle tanks, armored personnel carriers, helicopters, and other military equipment at an airbase in Syria’s coastal Latakia province, indicating that Russia has deployed troops inside Syria. Concurrent military exercises inside Russia suggest that Russia may intend to deploy additional forces, possibly further inside Syria.

Military Situation on the Syrian-Turkish Border: September 14, 2015

This map represents the military situation at the Syrian-Turkish border as of Sept. 11, 2015. Particular attention is paid to border crossings, many of which are now closed or highly restricted and under the control of a variety of groups including the Syrian regime, ISIS, Kurds, the Al-Qaeda affiliate Jabhat al-Nusra, and Syrian rebels.

Control of Terrain in Syria: September 14, 2015

ISW has modified its Control of Terrain in Syria map to order to highlight the terrain which is assessed to be under the predominant control of Lebanese Hezbollah rather than the Syrian regime. Hezbollah seized the town of Qusayr southwest of Homs City in an offensive over April to June 2013 which marked its first overt intervention into the Syrian Civil War.

Posture of Syrian Regime and Allies: September 14, 2015

Is Bashar al-Assad losing the Syrian Civil War? Given recent reports of direct Russian military support for the Syrian regime as well as continued increases in the assistance provided by Iran and its proxies, this map details the known or assessed locations where Russia, Iran, and Iranian proxies have established headquarters or staging areas in support of the Syrian regime.

Posture of Syrian Regime and Allies: September 14, 2015

Is Bashar al-Assad losing the Syrian Civil War? Given recent reports of direct Russian military support for the Syrian regime as well as continued increases in the assistance provided by Iran and its proxies, this map details the known or assessed locations where Russia, Iran, and Iranian proxies have established headquarters or staging areas in support of the Syrian regime.

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