Publications

Warning Update: Iraq’s Sunni Insurgency Begins as ISIS Loses Ground in Mosul

February 7, 2017 - Emily Anagnostos

Early indicators suggest that a post-ISIS Sunni insurgency may be forming in Iraq and al Qaeda (AQ) is trying to gain traction within it.

How Iran is Learning from Russia in Syria

February 3, 2017 - Genevieve Casagrande

By: Paul Bucala and Genevieve Casagrande

Iran's New Way of War in Syria

February 3, 2017 - Institute for the Study of War

Iran is transforming its military to be able to conduct quasi-conventional warfare hundreds of miles from its borders. This capability, which very few states in the world have, will fundamentally alter the strategic calculus and balance of power within the Middle East. It is not a transitory phenomenon. Iranian military leaders have rotated troops from across the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, Artesh, and Basij into Syria in order to expose a significant portion of its force to this kind of operation and warfare. Iran intends to continue along the path of developing a conventional force-projection capability.

Syria Situation Report: January 26 - February 2, 2017

February 2, 2017 - Chris Kozak

U.S. President Donald Trump held a telephone conversation with Russian President Vladimir Putin on January 28 that included talks on “mutual cooperation” against ISIS in Syria. President Trump later solicited the support of both Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates for an unspecified initiative to establish ‘safe zones’ in Syria.

Iraq Situation Report: January 25 - February 1, 2017

February 1, 2017 - Emily Anagnostos

ISIS continued to reestablish its presence in its historic support zones; other Sunni insurgent groups may form in Iraq as ISIS focuses on shifting from a governing to guerilla style terrorist organization.

The Campaign for Mosul: January 24-31, 2017

January 31, 2017 - Emily Anagnostos

Operations in Mosul paused since the Iraqi Security Forces (ISF) recaptured eastern Mosul on January 24. The ISF is now preparing to retake the western side. Political conditions have changed, however. Increased pressure on Prime Minister Haidar al-Abadi to keep his premiership and uncertain relations between the U.S. and Iraq may allow pro-Iranian groups to extract concessions from PM Abadi that run contrary to U.S. interests in Iraq.

Russian Airstrikes in Syria: December 20, 2016 – January 25, 2017

January 27, 2017 - Chris Kozak

Russia shifted the focus of its air campaign to Eastern Syria from January 14 – 25 in order to counter a major offensive by ISIS in Deir ez-Zour City. Nonetheless, the dramatic surge in strikes against ISIS in Syria represents an attempt by Russia to maintain its strategic interest in bolstering the claim of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad to all of Syria rather than an opportunity to serve as a reliable counter-terrorism partner.

Iran Positions for Reset in Iraq after Recapture of Mosul

January 26, 2017 - Emily Anagnostos

The recapture of Mosul can reset the balance of power between Iran and the U.S. in Iraq and the region.

Syria Situation Report: January 19 - 26, 2017

January 26, 2017 - Chris Kozak

Delegations from the regime and opposition held indirect negotiations on the Syrian Civil War at the Astana Talks brokered by Russia, Turkey, and Iran on January 23 - 24 but failed to reach an initial breakthrough on efforts to reinforce a faltering nationwide ceasefire. Meanwhile, Al-Qaeda continued to consolidate control over Idlib and Western Aleppo Provinces in preparation for the next phase of its campaign against the regime.

Iraq Situation Report: January 12-24, 2017

January 24, 2017 - Emily Anagnostos

The Iraqi Security Forces (ISF) pushed ISIS out of eastern Mosul on January 24, but will need to continue efforts to expel ISIS from historic support zones in Diyala and Anbar.

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