Publications

Putin's Offset: The Kremlin’s Geopolitical Adaptations Since 2014

September 17, 2020 - ISW Press

The West has had some success in countering the Kremlin since Russia’s illegal occupation of Crimea, but Russian President Vladimir Putin has found ways to offset external pressures on Russia without relinquishing his gains and goals. This paper is part of ISW's Military Learning & The Future of War series.

Russia's Dead-End Diplomacy in Syria

November 21, 2019 - Jennifer Cafarella

Syria's Assad is the primary obstacle to peace in Syria. The U.S. has for too long, and with little basis, expected Russia to compel Assad to accept a genuine diplomatic process to end the war. Given Russia's intent, it is time for the U.S. to widen its aperture for what diplomacy in Syria can and should achieve.

ISIS's Second Comeback: Assessing the Next ISIS Insurgency

June 26, 2019 - ISW Press

ISIS is stronger today than its predecessor Al Qaeda in Iraq (AQI) was in 2011, when the U.S. withdrew from Iraq. ISIS’s insurgency will grow because areas it has lost in Iraq and Syria are still neither stable nor secure. Its successful reconstitution of a physical caliphate in Iraq and Syria would produce new waves of ISIS attacks. Read the assessment of the risks that lie ahead in a new ISW report.

Confronting the Russian Challenge

June 19, 2019 - ISW Press

Russia poses a significant threat to the United States and its allies for which the West is not ready. Its unconventional warfare and information operations pose daunting but not insuperable challenges. The West must act urgently to meet this threat without exaggerating it. The U.S. and its allies need a coherent global approach to meeting and transcending the Russian challenge.

How We Got Here With Russia: The Kremlin's Worldview

March 13, 2019 - Nataliya Bugayova

Russian President Vladimir Putin has consistently sought a set of objectives since his rise to power in 2000: the preservation of his regime, the end of American hegemony, and the reinstatement of Russia as a global power. The West must understand Putin's worldview if it wants to avoid strategic surprise.

Russia's Military Posture: Ground Forces Order of Battle

March 7, 2018 - Catherine Harris

Russia is a poor country—its economy is roughly the size of Italy’s on a bigger population and a vast territory—and conventional warfare is exceedingly expensive. That is why Russia’s Vladimir Putin has opted for hybrid warfare whenever possible—it is the manner of fighting best suited to the brilliant poor.

America's Global Competitions: The Gray Zone in Context

February 14, 2018 - LTG James M. Dubik (U.S. Army, Ret.)

The U.S. faces three, interlocking competitions that will determine the future of the international order. The competitions pit America, its allies, and its partners against: the revisionist powers in Russia, China, and Iran; the revolutionary powers in the global movement animated by groups like al Qaeda ISIS; and the rogue power in North Korea. Success for the U.S. will require wrestling with all three competitions simultaneously and leveraging progress across them.

Iraqi Security Forces and Popular Mobilization Forces: Orders of Battle

December 29, 2017 - ISW Press

Any U.S. strategy relying on a partnered force must proceed from a realistic assessment of its capabilities and intentions. The Institute for the Study of War completed an Order of Battle study to evaluate the capabilities and disposition of the ISF. This study also presents an Order of Battle of the PMF to help U.S. decision makers and forces on the ground recognize and remediate the presence of Iranian-backed militias within the ISF.

ISIS Forecast: Ramadan 2016

May 27, 2016 - Jessica D. Lewis

The next forty-five days constitute a high-risk period for a surge of attacks by ISIS during the Islamic holy month of Ramadan. ISIS traditionally uses Ramadan – which begins on June 6 and ends on July 5, 2016 - as a justification for its attacks and as an occasion to reorient its strategy.

Syrian Armed Opposition Powerbrokers

March 17, 2016 - Jennifer Cafarella

International negotiations to reach a political settlement in Syria have resumed, although serious challenges remain to reaching a political settlement. The talks follow two weeks of a “cessation of hostilities” in which the Russian air campaign in Syria decreased notably, though it did not entirely cease. Putin announced that he would withdraw some airframes from Syria on March 15, incentivizing both Assad and the opposition to engage in Geneva.

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