Syria

On August 28, JN and rebel forces seized control of the Golan Heights border crossing with Israel in Quneitra province. 

The regime’s seizure of Morek is a significant setback for rebel forces seeking to maintain the disruption of the regime’s preferred supply line to Aleppo north from Hama along the M5 highway.

Rebel gains in southern Syria and efforts to sever regime supply routes north and south of Damascus indicate that the regime has lost momentum in the capital region. Rebel alliances show greater cohesion in this zone, as well a greater cooperation with Jabhat al-Nusra, while the regime is showing signs of severe manpower shortage. The regime is attempting to fill its ranks with new conscripts and reservists. The regime will likely need to reinforce its southern front in order to reverse rebel gains, though it is likely that the regime will need to sacrifice efforts elsewhere in order to provide sufficient support.

Regime forces appear to be suffering from a heightened manpower shortage.

An assassination campaign against rebel commanders appears to have emerged in western Syria, with at least 12 assassination attempts since the beginning of September 2014.

The assassination of Hassan Aboud, the leader of hardline Salafist Ahrar al-Sham and a former associate of al-Qaeda representative Abu Khalid al-Suri, is likely to have major repercussions for the capacity of rebels to coordinate their efforts across fronts.

Control of the urban terrain in Syria is parceled among a number of armed groups, including the Syrian regime, opposition groups including Jabhat al-Nusra (JN), and the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS).