The Sino-Russian relationship is closer and more interconnected in 2025 than it has ever been.

Kateryna Stepanenko examines the status of Russia and Ukraine's current AI drone efforts.


Russia dedicated staggering amounts of manpower and equipment to several major offensive efforts in Ukraine in 2024, intending to degrade Ukrainian defenses and seize the remainder of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts.

The United States can use the enormous challenges Russia will face in 2025 as leverage to secure critical concessions in ongoing negotiations to end the war by continuing and even expanding military support to Ukraine.

Some peace deals lead to peace, others to more war. The Minsk II deal aimed to end Russia’s limited invasion of Ukraine in 2015 but instead laid the groundwork for the full-scale Russian invasion in 2022.

Latest from ISW

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 23, 2025

The Kremlin continues to only diplomatically support Iran, showcasing the limitations in the Russian-Iranian strategic relationship. Russian President Vladimir Putin, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, Russian Presidential Aide Yuriy Ushakov, and Chief of the Russian General Staff's Main Directorate (GRU) Igor Kostykov met with Iranian Foreign Affairs Minister Abbas Araghchi in Moscow on June 23.

Russian Occupation Update, June 23, 2025

Russian occupation administrators attended the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF) to secure additional investment and development opportunities for the occupied regions of Ukraine. Russia's investment in occupied Ukraine is driven by two predominant factors: first, the desire to reap economic benefit from the occupation, and second, to further integrate occupied Ukraine into the Russian sphere of influence using economic levers.

Iranian Calculus and Response Options following the US strikes

Iranian leaders are currently calibrating their response to the United States' striking their nuclear program. How they ultimately respond will depend on what they conclude is necessary to preserve the Islamic Republic and ensure its longevity. That conclusion will, in turn, derive from how Iranian leaders understand their current situation and their risk tolerance. The following is an assessment that examines these factors and what key decisions Tehran is facing and how it will likely proceed.