Iran Update, November 11, 2023

Nov 11, 2023 - ISW Press

Iran Update, November 11, 2023

Ashka Jhaveri, Johanna Moore, Annika Ganzeveld, and Nicholas Carl

Information Cutoff: 2:00 pm EST

The Iran Update provides insights into Iranian and Iranian-sponsored activities abroad that undermine regional stability and threaten US forces and interests. It also covers events and trends that affect the stability and decision-making of the Iranian regime. The Critical Threats Project (CTP) at the American Enterprise Institute and the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) provides these updates regularly based on regional events. For more on developments in Iran and the region, see our interactive map of Iran and the Middle East.

Note: CTP and ISW have refocused the update to cover the Israel-Hamas war. The new sections address developments in the Gaza Strip, the West Bank, Lebanon, and Syria, as well as noteworthy activity from Iran’s Axis of Resistance. We do not report in detail on war crimes because these activities are well-covered in Western media and do not directly affect the military operations we are assessing and forecasting. We utterly condemn violations of the laws of armed conflict and the Geneva Conventions and crimes against humanity even though we do not describe them in these reports.

Click here to see CTP and ISW’s interactive map of Israeli ground operations. This map is updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.

Key Takeaways:

Israeli forces advanced further toward al Shifa Hospital and the surrounding area and clashed with nearby Palestinian militia fighters.
Hamas and other Palestinian militia fighters are continuing their attacks against the IDF behind the Israeli forward line of advance, which is consistent with the nature of clearing operations.
Palestinian militants claimed three indirect fire attacks into Israel. Palestinian militias have reduced their rates of indirect fire attacks into Israel in recent days compared to the beginning of the Israel-Hamas war.
CTP-ISW recorded six clashes and three demonstrations in the West Bank, primarily in Jenin.
Lebanese Hezbollah and other Iranian-backed fighters conducted 15 cross-border attacks into northern Israel.
Lebanese Hezbollah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah gave his second public speech on the Israel-Hamas war. Nasrallah highlighted Iran’s support for members of the Axis of Resistance and warned that Iranian-backed militias will continue attack US forces in Iraq and Syria unless the United States intervenes to stop Israeli attacks on the Gaza Strip.
The Islamic Resistance in Iraq—an umbrella group for Iranian-backed Iraqi militias—claimed one attack targeting US forces stationed in Rmelan, Hasakah Province, in northeastern Syria.
Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi traveled to Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, to attend a joint Arab League-OIC meeting. Raisi’s visit to Riyadh marked the first official visit by an Iranian president to Saudi Arabia in 11 years and was part of Iran’s ongoing effort to rally Arab and Muslim countries against Israel.
Iranian Intelligence and Security Minister Esmail Khatib warned of the long-term consequences of Israel’s attacks on the Gaza Strip for US forces in the Middle East.

Gaza Strip

Axis of Resistance campaign objectives:

Erode the will of the Israeli political establishment and public to launch and sustain a major ground operation into the Gaza Strip
Degrade IDF material and morale around the Gaza Strip

Israeli forces advanced further toward al Shifa Hospital and the surrounding area and clashed with nearby Palestinian militia fighters. The Hamas-led Gaza Strip Health Ministry director general said that there are Israeli tanks in the streets and snipers on nearby roofs.[1] An independent analyst on X (Twitter) geolocated footage taken from a building on the corner of the medical complex with audible small arms fire.[2] The al Quds Brigades—the military wing of Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ)—claimed on November 11 that its fighters fought the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) in the vicinity of al Shifa hospital and the nearby Nasr neighborhood and al Shati refugee camp.[3] The al Qassem Brigades—the militant wing of Hamas—said its militia fighters are engaged in clashes at ”all the pivots and points” of Israeli progress in the Gaza Strip.[4] Local media said that al Qassem Brigades fighters previously clashed with advancing Israeli forces on the al Nasr Street northeast of al Shifa hospital on November 10.[5] Israeli military spokesman Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari said that the IDF would help evacuate the infants from al Shifa hospital.[6] Head of the Gaza Coordination and Liaison Administration said that the IDF is not shooting at the hospital or besieging the area and has left the east side of the hospital open.[7]

The IDF Givati Brigade Combat Team advanced on the Lababidi Street east of al Shati refugee camp and killed the Hamas company commander who held hostage 1,000 Gaza Strip residents at the Rantisis Specialist Clinic, according to the IDF.[8] The IDF has repeatedly said that Hamas uses civilian and humanitarian infrastructure to mask its military activities.[9]

Hamas and other Palestinian militia fighters are continuing their attacks against the IDF behind the Israeli forward line of advance, which is consistent with the nature of clearing operations. The al Qassem Brigades published footage on November 11 of its fighters conducting hit-an-run attacks with rocket propelled grenades (RPGs) to harass Israeli forces in Beit Hanoun.[10] The IDF continued clearing operations in Beit Hanoun as the 551st Brigade fought in Beit Hanoun and destroyed Hamas infrastructure.[11] The al Qassem Brigades separately launched mortars at Israeli vehicles west of the Erez military checkpoint, which is consistent with CTP-ISW's assessment that Palestinian militias are attempting to harass and disrupt Israeli ground lines of communication.[12] The al Aqsa Martyrs’ Brigades—the self-claimed militant wing of Fatah—mortared IDF soldiers in al Nasr neighborhood on November 11.[13]

Israel is conducting joint attacks on Palestinian militia infrastructure in the Gaza Strip. IDF infantry forces identified military targets inside buildings of the al Shati refugee camp, where CTP-ISW has observed clashes for several days before Israeli naval forces attacked the buildings from the Mediterranean Sea.[14]

Palestinian militants claimed three indirect fire attacks into Israel on November 11. The al Qassem Brigades claimed two mortar attacks into southern Israel.[15] The al Quds Brigades claimed one rocket attacks targeting Kissufim in southern Israel.[16] The IDF intercepted a ”suspicious” target that crossed from the Gaza Strip into Sderot.[17] Palestinian militias have reduced their rates of indirect fire attacks into Israel in recent days compared to the beginning of the Israel-Hamas war. CTP-ISW previously reported that Hamas and PIJ began reducing its rate of attacks from the Gaza Strip in mid-October 2023 to conserve munitions.[18]

Al Qassem Brigades Military spokesperson Abu Ubaida claimed that Palestinian militia fighters are effectively attacking Israeli forces. Ubaida said that the militia fighters have destroyed or damaged over 160 Israeli military vehicles since the start of the Israeli ground operations and over 25 vehicles in the last 48 hours.[19] CTP-ISW has not observed any evidence of this assertion. The al Qassem Brigades primarily uses the Yassin-105 anti-tank RPG to conduct hit-and-run attacks on Israeli tanks.[20] Ubaida claimed that the militia fighters are targeting Israeli ground forces with rockets, car bombs, mortars, and anti-personnel bombs, likely refering to dropping bombs using a quadcopter drone.[21]

Recorded reports of rocket attacks; CTP-ISW cannot independently verify impact.

West Bank

Axis of Resistance campaign objectives:

Draw IDF assets and resources toward the West Bank and fix them there

CTP-ISW recorded six clashes and three demonstrations in the West Bank, primarily in Jenin, on November 11.[22] Unidentified Palestinian fighters threw fireworks and Molotov cocktails at IDF personnel in Silat al Dhahr, Jenin, according to a video circulated by Palestinian media.[23] Unidentified Palestinian fighters separately clashed with Israeli forces at Arraba, Jenin.[24] Palestinian media circulated a call for youth demonstrations in Jenin in support of the Gaza Strip on November 10.[25] CTP-ISW recorded two youth demonstrations in Bethlehem and Tulkarm on November 11.[26]

This map is not an exhaustive depiction of clashes and demonstrations in the West Bank.

Southern Lebanon and Golan Heights

Axis of Resistance campaign objectives:

Draw IDF assets and resources toward northern Israel and fix them there
Set conditions for successive campaigns into northern Israel

Lebanese Hezbollah (LH) and other Iranian-backed fighters conducted 15 cross-border attacks into northern Israel on November 11. LH claimed responsibility for nine cross-border attacks using rockets, mortars, and anti-tank munitions along the Israel-Lebanon border and in the disputed Sheba Farms.[27] LH fighters targeted two IDF outposts in the Shebaa Farms as part of an ongoing attack campaign targeting IDF radar and sensor sites and military targets.[28] The IDF said unspecified fighters in Lebanese territory launched mortars and rockets that landed into open areas in Israel.[29] The IDF separately said unspecified fighters fired at an Israeli drone operating near the border and that Israeli air defense forces shot down or intercepted three aerial targets.[30] The Lebanese Amal Regiments carried out several military operations on November 11, including attacking the Israeli Ramim barracks.[31] This attack is the first time the Amal Regiments have claimed attacks since the Israel-Hamas war began. LH separately claimed to fire rockets at the Ramim barracks on November 11.[32]

LH Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah gave on November 11 his second public speech on the Israel-Hamas war. Nasrallah stated that LH will continue to use southern Lebanon to pressure Israel, implying that it will conduct further attacks on Israeli targets. Nasrallah also claimed that the Lebanese diplomatic and political establishment supports the LH attacks against Israel.[33] He lastly asserted that LH has expanded the quantity of its attacks into northern Israel and begun useing new military capabilities, such as the Burkan missile and various surveillance drones.[34]

Iran and Axis of Resistance

Axis of Resistance campaign objectives:

Demonstrate the capability and willingness of Iran and the Axis of Resistance to escalate against the United States and Israel on multiple fronts
Set conditions to fight a regional war on multiple fronts

The Islamic Resistance in Iraq—an umbrella group for Iranian-backed Iraqi militias—claimed one attack targeting US forces stationed in Rmelan, Hasakah Province, in northeastern Syria on November 11.[35] The Islamic Resistance in Iraq claimed that it launched two one-way drones in the attack and that both successfully hit their targets. CENTCOM has not commented on the attack at the time of publication. CTP-ISW cannot independently verify the claim from the Islamic Resistance in Iraq. This attack is the first targeting US forces in Rmelan since the Israel-Hamas war began.

LH Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah highlighted Iran’s support for members of the Axis of Resistance in a speech on November 11.[36] Nasrallah claimed that Iran has not wavered in its support for its Axis of Resistance and has continued to arm, finance, and train “Lebanon, Palestine, and the region.” Nasrallah may be responding the possible frustrations within the Axis of Resistance toward Iran given that Iran has had a relatively restrained response to the Israeli ground operation into the Gaza Strip.

Nasrallah also warned that Iranian-backed militias will continue attack US forces in Iraq and Syria unless the United States intervenes to stop Israeli attacks on the Gaza Strip. Nasrallah praised the Islamic Resistance in Iraq for fighting to remove US forces and the Houthis for conducting drone and missile attacks targeting Israel.[37] Nasrallah’s warning of additional attacks is noteworthy given that he has reportedly played a prominent role in leading joint operations room overseeing Axis of Resistance activity cross the region.[38]

Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi traveled to Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, on November 11 to attend a joint Arab League-OIC meeting.[39] Raisi’s visit to Riyadh marked the first official visit by an Iranian president to Saudi Arabia in 11 years and was part of Iran’s ongoing effort to rally Arab and Muslim countries against Israel.[40] Raisi called on Arab and Muslim governments to cut all economic and political ties with Israel and to label the IDF a terrorist organization. Iranian state media specifically called on Azerbaijan and Turkey to stop exporting oil to Israel in their coverage of the joint meeting.[41] The emphasis from Iranian state media on Turkey is consistent with CTP-ISW’s previous observation that the Iranian regime is seizing on Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s pro-Hamas, anti-Israel stance on the Israel-Hamas war to try to undermine Israeli-Turkish rapprochement.[42] Raisi additionally called for the IDF to immediately withdraw from the Gaza Strip and stated that Arab and Muslim countries should arm Palestinians if Israeli “war crimes” and US “management” of the war persist.

Raisi met with the leaders of Egypt, Lebanon, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and Syria on the sidelines of the joint Arab League-OIC meeting.[43] Raisi warned that people in the region may lose patience with their governments and take up the Palestinian cause themselves if the OIC fails to take effective actions to help Palestinians and stop Israel’s attacks on the Gaza Strip.[44] Iran has historically—and especially since the start of the war on October 7—sought to rally Muslim countries against Israel and has used the OIC as a platform to do so, hoping to isolate Israel internationally.[45] Iranian Foreign Affairs Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian recently attended an emergency OIC ministerial meeting in Jeddah on October 18 to this end.[46]

Iranian Intelligence and Security Minister Esmail Khatib warned on November 11 of the long-term consequences of Israel’s attacks on the Gaza Strip for US forces in the Middle East. Khatib stated that the US forces sent to the Middle East amid the Israel-Hamas war may stay in the region after the war ends because Israel’s attacks on the Gaza Strip have failed to "establish deterrence.”[47]