 |
 |
Belarus Warning Updates
Belarus Warning Updates
These updates track emerging developments in Russia's efforts to integrate the Belarusian military and subordinate its state.
6/25/2021
Belarus Warning Update: Russia Expands Unit Integration with Belarusian and Serbian Militaries in June Slavic Brotherhood Exercises
2/19/2021
Belarus Warning Update: Forced Integration with Russia - Not the Protest Movement - is Lukashenko's Biggest Threat
2/8/2021
Belarus Warning Update: Russia Fields New Motor Rifle Division in Kaliningrad and Conducts Joint Command Training with Belarus
2/4/2021
Belarus Warning Update: Belarusian Forces May Deploy to Syria in Late 2021
1/28/2021
Belarus Warning Update: Moscow and Minsk Hold Simultaneous Combat Readiness Exercises in Kaliningrad, Mainland Russia, and Belarus
1/14/2021
Belarus Warning Update: Belarus Confirms Plans to Purchase Advanced Air Defense Systems from Russia
12/28/2020
Belarus Warning Update: Kremlin Likely Contriving Amenable Government Structure in Belarus
12/21/2020
Belarus Warning Update: Promised Major Opposition Protest March Fizzles
12/18/2020
Belarus Warning Update: Putin Will Increase Pressure on Lukashenko to Integrate Belarus in 2021
11/30/2020
Belarus Warning Update: NEXTA Intensifies Campaign to Develop Local Opposition Leadership in Minsk
11/30/2020
Belarus Warning Update: Putin Pressures Lukashenko to Implement His Previous Integration Concessions
11/13/2020
Belarus Warning Update: Belarusian Opposition Leader Directs Protesters to Employ Force against Lukashenko
11/6/2020
Belarus Warning Update: Upcoming CSTO Exercise Could Support Russian Military Deployment to Belarus
11/2/2020
Belarus Warning Update: Lukashenko Accuses Poland of Preparing Catholic Sectarian Subversion
10/29/2020
Belarus Warning Update: Lukashenko Raises Odd Chemical Terrorism Threat
10/27/2020
Belarus Warning Update: Putin Intensifies Russian-Belarusian Military Integration
10/26/2020
Belarus Warning Update: Lukashenko Will Likely Outlast Ultimatum Protests
10/23/2020
Belarus Warning Update: Putin Likely Disrupts Lukashenko’s Plan for Defusing Protests
10/19/2020
Belarus Warning Update: Lukashenko Attempts to De-escalate Protests Ahead of October 25 Opposition Ultimatum
10/13/2020
Belarus Warning Update: Police Detain Demonstrators as Protests Escalate
10/11/2020
Belarus Warning Update: Lukashenko Escalates Crackdown in Likely Response to Increased Risk of Kremlin Intervention
10/9/2020
Belarus Warning Update: Lukashenko Begins Campaign for “Information Sovereignty” to De-Escalate Protests in Belarus
10/8/2020
Belarus Warning Update: The Kremlin Will Likely Use October Military Exercises to Advance its Hybrid War in Belarus
10/7/2020
Warning: Protests in Kyrgystan May Fuel Intensified Kremlin Action in Belarus
10/5/2020
Warning: Putin Seeks Belarus' Integration with Russia via Belarusian Constitutional Amendments
10/5/2020
Warning: Russia Likely Began Preparing Logistics Supply Lines to Belarus
10/2/2020
Warning: Russia's Western Military District Prepares for October Exercises in Belarus
9/29/2020
Warning: The Kremlin is Planning an October Multinational Command Staff Exercise in Belarus
9/27/2020
Warning: Belarusian Protest movement Likely Developing Local Organization
9/26/2020
Warning: The Kremlin May have Used Kavkaz Exercises in Part to Prepare for a Conventional Russian Military Deployment to Belarus
9/25/2020
Warning: Russia and Belarus Prepare for October Exercises in Belarus
9/25/2020
Warning Update: Putin is Setting Conditions for a Long-Term Continuous Russian Military Presence in Belarus
9/23/2020
Warning Update: Putin Remains Dissatisfied with Lukashenko's Concessions
9/22/2020
Warning Update: Russia Deploys a Third Battalion Tactical Group to Belarus
9/21/2020
Warning: The Kremlin Deploys a Brigade-Sized Force to Belarus Near Polish Border
9/20/2020
Belarus Warning Update: NEXTA Actively Encourages Belarusian Security Services Defections
9/19/2020
Belarus Warning Update: Multiple Russian Military Exercises Occurring in the Western Military District, Belarus and Moldova
9/17/2020
Belarus Warning Update: Russian Force Deployment to Belarus Likely Imminent
9/16/2020
Warning: Lukashenko and the Kremlin Vie for Control over Future Russian Weapons in Belarus
9/15/2020
Warning: Putin Sends Airborne Troops to Belarus Exercise - And a Message to Lukashenko
9/14/2020
Warning: Lukashenko Softens His Opposition to Protests, Seeking Leverage against Increased Russian Pressure
9/13/2020
Warning: Lukashenko Tries to Control Protests Ahead of Meeting with Putin
9/10/2020
Warning Update: Lukashenko Resists Moscow's Pressure for Economic Integration
http://www.iswresearch.org/2020/09/belarus-warning-update-lukashenko.html
9/9/2020
Warning: Lukashenko Begins Targeting the Kremlin Ahead of Meeting Putin
9/8/2020
Warning: Lukashenko Expels Opposition Leaders to Support Kremlin Information Operation
9/7/2020
Warning: Belarus Warning Update: Belarusian Security Forces Likely Kidnap Opposition Leader Kolesnikova
9/6/2020
Warning: Belarusian Security Forces Escalate Violence against Protesters but Large Protests Continue
9/5/2020
Warning: Security Personnel in Green Uniforms without Insignia Appear in Minsk September 5, 2020 - Press ISW
9/4/2020
Warning: Moscow Claims Poland Is the Lead Sponsor of Belarusian Protests; Minsk Calls Protests a “Color Revolution”
9/3/2020
Warning: Belarusian Opposition Begins First Anti-Kremlin Shift after Lukashenko Promises Moscow Union State Concessions
9/2/2020
Warning: The Kremlin Prepares to Further Integrate Belarus
9/1/2020
Warning: Belarus Warning Update: Kremlin-linked Belarusian Opposition Leadership Threaten to Further Fragment Opposition Unity
8/31/2020
Warning: Kremlin Information Operations Intensify Condition Setting for Intervention in Belarus
8/30/2020
Warning: Nexta Strategy to Create Grassroots Organization in Belarus Likely to Provoke Kremlin Response
8/30/2020
Warning: Militarization of Lukashenko’s Response to Belarusian Protests Increases But Without Violence; Moscow Continues to Set Conditions for Intervention
8/29/2020
Warning: Lukashenko and the Kremlin Consolidate Control of Belarusian Media Space
8/28/2020
Warning: Lukashenko Appears to Resist Kremlin Pressure to Request Russian Intervention in Belarus
8/27/2020
Warning: Kremlin Announces Reserve Force is Prepared to Intervene in Belarus
http://www.iswresearch.org/2020/08/warning-kremlin-announces-reserve-force.html
8/26/2020
Warning: Opposition Continues to Unify as Lukashenko Continues Crackdown
http://www.iswresearch.org/2020/08/warning-opposition-continues-to-unify.html
8/25/2020
Warning: Lukashenko Targets Opposition Leadership with Non-military Kremlin Support
http://www.iswresearch.org/2020/08/warning-lukashenko-targets-opposition.html
8/24/2020
Warning: Lukashenko’s Security Forces Detain Belarusian Opposition Leaders
http://www.iswresearch.org/2020/08/warning-lukashenkos-security-forces.html
8/23/2020
Warning: NEXTA Telegram Channel Divides Protests in Minsk as Lukashenko Prepares for Crackdown
http://www.iswresearch.org/2020/08/warning-nexta-telegram-channel-divides.html
8/23/2020
Warning: Anti-Lukashenko Protests Erupt across Belarus
http://www.iswresearch.org/2020/08/warning-anti-lukashenko-protests-erupt.html
8/23/2020
Warning: Lukashenko and NEXTA Apparently Move Towards Confrontation After Sunday Protests
http://www.iswresearch.org/2020/08/warning-lukashenko-and-nexta-apparently.html
8/23/2020
Warning: Violent Confrontation between Protesters and Military Likely
http://www.iswresearch.org/2020/08/warning-violent-confrontation-between.html
8/22/2020
Warning: Lukashenko Mobilizes Military to Western Border as Local Protest Organization Emerges
http://www.iswresearch.org/2020/08/warning-lukashenko-mobilizes-military.html
8/21/2020
Warning: Moscow Sets Conditions for Kinetic Intervention in Belarus Through New Information Operation
http://www.iswresearch.org/2020/08/warning-moscow-sets-conditions-for.html
8/20/2020
Warning: Kremlin Enables Lukashenko to Resume Crackdown in Belarus as Protest Movement Pauses
http://www.iswresearch.org/2020/08/warning-kremlin-enables-lukashenko-to.html
8/20/2020
Warning: Lukashenko’s Kremlin-Backed Media Campaign
http://www.iswresearch.org/2020/08/warning-lukashenkos-kremlin-backed.html
8/19/2020
Warning: Kremlin Begins Security Forces Support for Lukashenko Following Regional Security Service Defection
8/18/2020
Warning: Belarusian Opposition Reaches Out to Kremlin
http://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/warning-belarusian-opposition-reaches-out-kremlin
8/17/2020
Warning: Telegram Channel Nexta Provokes Turning Point in Belarus Protests
8/17/2020
Warning: Russia and Belarus Launch Military Exercises
http://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/warning-russia-and-belarus-launch-military-exercises
8/16/2020
Warning: Lukashenko Seems to Lack Strategy as Peaceful Protests Grow
8/15/2020
Warning: Russian Hybrid Intervention into Belarus is Likely Imminent
8/15/2020
Warning: Belarusian President Lukashenko Reaches Agreement with The Kremlin for Russian Intervention
8/14/2020
Russia in Review: Turmoil in Belarus Benefits the Kremlin
http://www.iswresearch.org/2020/08/russia-in-review-turmoil-in-belarus.html
8/14/2020
Warning: Russia May Send “Little Green Men” to Belarus
http://www.iswresearch.org/2020/08/warning-russia-may-send-little-green.html