Iran Project

Lebanese Hezbollah conducted a drone and rocket attack on Israel on August 24 in response to Israel killing a senior Hezbollah commander, Fuad Shukr. Hezbollah fired 200-300 projectiles, including around 20 one-way attack drones, in two waves into Israel. Hezbollah fired rockets at 11 Israel Defense Forces (IDF) sites in northern Israel in the first wave of its attack. These sites included a prominent IDF air defense and communications site on Mount Meron, which Hezbollah has targeted repeatedly since October 2023. Hezbollah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah said that the rockets were meant to distract Israeli air defenses and enable the second wave to penetrate deeper into Israel.

A Hamas delegation arrived in Cairo on August 24 to “listen to the results of the negotiations” between US, Egyptian, Israeli and Qatari mediators. Senior Hamas political official Izzat al Rishq announced that a Hamas delegation led by head negotiator Khalil al Hayya will travel to Cairo on August 24. Hamas official Mahmoud Mardawi said that the Hamas delegation is not going to Cairo to negotiate but instead will “listen closely” to the mediators.

The factors seemingly driving Iran to delay its direct attack on Israel are temporary. These factors will disappear with time, which would increase the likelihood of an Iranian attack on Israel. 

Iranian interest in the progress of Gaza Strip ceasefire-hostage negotiations suggests that elements of the Iranian regime are likely delaying a retaliatory strike on Israel until ceasefire talks conclude. Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps-affiliated Tasnim News Agency reported that newly appointed Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi is scheduled to meet Qatari Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman al Thani in Tehran "in the coming days." Thani kept Iranian officials apprised of negotiation progress during the August 15-16 ceasefire talks. 

The Iranian Permanent Mission to the UN suggested on August 20 that Iran’s Axis of Resistance could conduct a ground attack into Israel in response to Israel killing several senior Axis of Resistance leaders, including Hamas Political Bureau Chairman Ismail Haniyeh, in recent weeks.

Senior Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) officials have continued signaling that Iran will attack Israel directly in response to Israel killing several senior Axis of Resistance leaders, including Hamas Political Bureau Chairman Ismail Haniyeh, in recent weeks. IRGC Deputy Commander Brigadier General Ali Fadavi warned on August 20 that Iran will “definitely” retaliate against Israel “at the suitable time and place.” Fadavi also warned that Israel “will be punished more severely than before,” likely referring to the large-scale Iranian drone and missile attack on Israel in April 2024. CTP-ISW previously assessed that Iran likely seeks to cause greater damage to Israel than it did in its April 2024 attack in order to restore deterrence with Israel.

The United States, Israel, and international mediators plan to continue ceasefire talks despite Hamas’ rejection of the latest ceasefire-hostage proposal.... An anonymous US official said that the Biden administration still expects a resumption of talks from the key negotiating partners later this week. Hamas [ ] rejected the ceasefire-hostage proposal produced in the most recent round of talks in Doha and continues to support the July 2024 ceasefire-hostage proposal.

Hamas has rejected optimism from US and international mediators that a ceasefire-hostage agreement is close to being reached.

The United States and foreign mediators seem to be attempting to delay or indefinitely postpone an Iranian and Hezbollah attack targeting Israel by both threatening Iran and presenting a potential ceasefire-hostage agreement as an off-ramp from further regional escalation. 

Iran is likely trying to build operational surprise ahead of its expected attack on Israel. CTP-ISW continues to assess that the most likely course of action is that Iran and its Axis of Resistance will conduct a coordinated drone and missile attack on Israel.