Iran Project

Iran is likely taking a series of steps to prevent instability in Iraq after the fall of the Assad Regime.

An Alawite organization accused the Hayat Tahrir al Sham (HTS)-led interim Syrian government of failing to address instances of sectarian violence. The Alawite Islamic Forum in Syria released a statement on January 3 expressing its support for the interim Syrian government but argued that the interim government, though it has stated it seeks to respect all Syrians, has so far failed to back words with action. The group cited instances of sectarian-motivated attacks and killings in Homs, Hama, Latakia, Tartous, Damascus, and Daraa. HTS-led security forces have been conducting clearing operations targeting former regime members in these areas since December 28.

Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei attempted to justify Iran’s sacrifices in Syria and emphasized resilience amid setbacks during a speech on January 1 that commemorated the death of former Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps Commander Qassem Soleimani.

A Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) delegation met with Hayat Tahrir al Sham (HTS) leader Ahmed al Shara in Damascus on December 30. There were no specific, public reports of meaningful or tangible progress toward an agreement between Shara and the SDF, despite an unspecified official’s statement to AFP that the meeting was “positive.”

A new group announced its opposition to the Hayat Tahrir al Sham (HTS)-led interim government. Armed opposition by the group—named the Syrian Popular Resistance—would likely exacerbate sectarian tensions in Syria and even risk driving fissures in the HTS-led coalition. There are growing indications that Iran is trying to stoke and exploit sectarian violence in Syria. Doing so would weaken the HTS-led interim government and help reestablish the Axis of Resistance in Syria. The US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and Turkish-backed Syrian National Army (SNA) have continued to clash in northern and northeastern Syria on December 31. An unspecified Israeli official speaking to Israeli media expressed interest in increasing cooperation with the US-led international coalition against the Houthis in Yemen.

Iran appears increasingly as though it seeks to foment sectarian conflict in Syria, which it could then exploit to establish proxy and partner militias there. Outlets affiliated with the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) and Armed Forces General Staff published reports on December 30 to this end. One outlet reported on HTS-affiliated elements committing violence against Syrian Alawites. Another outlet reported that armed “resistance” has formed against the HTS-led interim government in response to its offenses against the Syrian people. CTP-ISW has independently observed anti-HTS elements appearing in predominantly Alawite areas in recent days.

Hayat Tahrir al Sham (HTS) leader Ahmed al Shara detailed a three-to-four-year timeline for building new Syrian state, during which he presumably would rule and could heavily influence the allocation of political power.

Hayat Tahrir al Sham (HTS) and its allies are contending with locally-organized cells of fighters in western Syria. HTS’s response to the current violence is fueling accusations of sectarianism and arbitrary targeting, which could in turn trigger further violence. HTS has launched a series of raids targeting former Assad regime members in northwestern Syria but has faced resistance in former Assad strongholds. Unspecified Syrian opposition fighters continue to target the Alawite community fueling distrust and accusations that arrests conducted by the HTS-led security forces are driven by sectarianism and not in pursuit of justice for crimes committed under the former regime.

An explosion from a former SAA position in Homs City suggests that HTS does not yet have full control on the ground and that local groups and individuals can access and repurpose unexploded ordinance.

Several trends have placed Syria on a trajectory that is increasingly likely to lead to ethno-sectarian conflict. Social media reports have alleged that individuals affiliated with Hayat Tahrir al Sham (HTS) have killed and kidnapped Alawites and other Syrians accused of being Assad regime officials.