Syria Situation Report

Russian Airstrikes in Syria: September 30 - October 20, 2015

Key Takeaway: Russian airstrikes continue to bolster the Assad regime’s efforts to defeat the Syrian opposition. Russian airstrikes from October 19-20 primarily supported ongoing regime ground offensives in rebel-held areas in the southern countryside of Aleppo, the al-Ghab plain of northwestern Hama Province, and the Jebel al-Akrad mountain range in northeastern Latakia Province.

Russian Airstrikes in Syria: September 30 - October 14

Russia’s involvement in Syria is facilitating ISIS’s territorial gains, while also strengthening Assad. Russia is supporting the Syrian regime’s offensives in Latakia, the al-Ghab Plain, and northern Hama. Russia also intensified strikes on rebel-held northwestern Aleppo, likely to set conditions for an imminent Russian-Iranian-Syrian regime offensive in the area.

Russian Airstrikes in Syria: September 30 - October 12, 2015

Key Takeaway: The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) continued to ramp up its aerial campaign in Syria, claiming to conduct 250 “combat sorties” from October 9-12. This spike in Russian military activity is a notable escalation compared to the 20 “combat sorties” flown on October 8. Most Russian airstrikes continued to concentrate in northwestern Hama province in support of a large-scale regime offensive in the area.

Russian Airstrikes in Syria: September 30 - October 9, 2015

Key Takeaway: The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) claimed that Russian warplanes conducted 67 “combat missions” throughout Syria on October 9, marking the largest number of Russian airstrikes in Syria on a single day since September 30. Russian airstrikes continued to largely concentrate in rebel-held areas of northwestern Syria from October 8-9.

Russian Airstrikes in Syria: September 30, 2015 - October 5, 2015

Russian airstrikes continue to primarily target Syrian opposition groups throughout northwestern Syria, including areas along the Turkish border in northern Latakia Province. Russian warplanes violated Turkish airspace and harassed Turkish F-16s in at least two separate incidents over Hatay Province of southern Turkey on October 3 and 4, prompting an emergency NATO meeting.

Russian Airstrikes in Syria: September 30-October 3, 2015

Russian airstrikes continue to primarily target Syrian opposition groups in areas far from ISIS's core terrain. These strikes are concentrated in northwestern Syria, particularly in rebel-held areas of Idlib Province and the northern countryside of Hama Province. The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) claimed only three airstrikes targeting positions in known ISIS-held terrain between October 1 and October 3. However, local reporting only confirmed two of these strikes.

Russian Airstrikes in Syria: September 30-October 1, 2015

Russia conducted a second round of airstrikes in Syria on October 1, targeting rebel-held positions in the provinces of Homs, Idlib, and Aleppo. The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) has repeatedly claimed that the airstrikes are targeting ISIS positions in these rebel-held areas. These airstrikes are the first Russian strikes confirmed by the Russian MoD that have targeted positions in ISIS-held terrain.

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