Ukraine Project

South Korean intelligence suggests that North Korea may deploy North Korean troops to Ukrainian territory, which would represent a significant battlefield inflection.

Russia will effectively ban Ukrainian-language education in schools in occupied Ukraine starting on September 1, setting multigenerational conditions that will allow the Kremlin to claim that occupied Ukraine is part of Russia on a linguistic basis.

US President Donald Trump stated that Russia may have territorial ambitions beyond Ukraine — consistent with ISW's long-held assessments that Russia is preparing for a future conflict with NATO and setting conditions to justify future aggression against non-NATO former Soviet Union states.

NATO General Secretary Mark Rutte assessed that Russia is the largest existential threat to NATO members today and that Russia is preparing for a protracted war with NATO.

The Kremlin continues to only diplomatically support Iran, showcasing the limitations in the Russian-Iranian strategic relationship. Russian President Vladimir Putin, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, Russian Presidential Aide Yuriy Ushakov, and Chief of the Russian General Staff's Main Directorate (GRU) Igor Kostykov met with Iranian Foreign Affairs Minister Abbas Araghchi in Moscow on June 23.

Russian occupation administrators attended the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF) to secure additional investment and development opportunities for the occupied regions of Ukraine. Russia's investment in occupied Ukraine is driven by two predominant factors: first, the desire to reap economic benefit from the occupation, and second, to further integrate occupied Ukraine into the Russian sphere of influence using economic levers.

Russia condemned the recent US strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities on June 22 amid reports that Iran's foreign minister will meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow on June 23.

Russian President Vladimir Putin's long-term demands for full Ukrainian capitulation remain unchanged.

Russian President Vladimir Putin claimed that Russians and Ukrainians are one nation and all of Ukraine is effectively Russian as part of efforts to justify his continued conquest of Ukraine.

The West has failed to convince Russian President Vladimir Putin to reevaluate his theory of victory in Ukraine in the past year. Putin’s public statements indicate that he continues to assess that Russian forces will be able to win a war of attrition by sustaining gradual advances along the frontline indefinitely.