Iran Update, June 3, 2025
June 3, 2025 - ISW Press
Iranian Foreign Affairs Minister Abbas Araghchi likely discussed the Lebanese government’s efforts to prevent Hezbollah’s reconstitution during a visit to Beirut on June 3.
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Publications
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 3, 2025
June 3, 2025 - ISW Press
Kremlin officials publicly acknowledged that Russia seeks the “complete destruction” of Ukraine, indicating Moscow’s disinterest in good faith peace negotiations and a near-term resolution to the war.
Iran Update, June 2, 2025
June 2, 2025 - ISW Press
Iran increased its stockpile of 60 percent enriched uranium by 133.8 kilograms, or 3.2 significant quantities, since February 2025, according to an unreleased International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) report. Iran has enough 60 percent enriched uranium, if enriched further, to produce nearly 10 nuclear weapons.
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 2, 2025
June 2, 2025 - ISW Press
Ukrainian and Russian delegations met in Istanbul on June 2 and only reached agreements about prisoner of war (POW) exchanges. Russia's refusal to give Ukraine its memorandum with its terms for a peace settlement before the meeting ensured that the meeting was largely unproductive and further protracted the negotiation process.
The Battlefield AI Revolution Is Not Here Yet: The Status of Current Russian and Ukrainian AI Drone Efforts
June 2, 2025 - ISW Press
Russia and Ukraine are engaged in an active technological race to develop and deploy drones with artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) capabilities. Russia and Ukraine are competing to advance these AI/ML-powered drones to automate drone interoperability, targeting, and battlefield analysis. The successful integration of AI/ML drones could enable Russian and Ukrainian forces to reduce their reliance on human drone operators and defenders, bypass electronic warfare (EW), including jamming, reduce human limitations in target identification, and speed up decision-making processes involved in drone warfare.
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 1, 2025
June 1, 2025 - ISW Press
Ukraine conducted a large-scale and simultaneous series of drone strikes against multiple air bases in Russia on June 1. Sources within Ukraine's Security Service (SBU) told various media outlets that the SBU conducted widespread first-person view (FPV) drone strikes that struck four air bases in Russia. The SBU sources reported that Ukrainian forces struck Belaya Air Base in Irkutsk Oblast; Olenya Air Base in Murmansk Oblast; Dyagilevo Air Base in Ryazan Oblast; and Ivanovo Air Base in Ivanovo Oblast. The SBU sources confirmed that Ukrainian drone operators struck 41 Russian strategic bombers, including A-50 long-range radar detection aircraft and Tu-95 and Tu-22M3 strategic bombers – fixed-wing aircraft that Russia uses to detect Ukrainian air defenses and launch cruise missiles against Ukraine.
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 31, 2025
May 31, 2025 - ISW Press
Russian officials' public statements continue to demonstrate that Russia maintains wider territorial goals in Ukraine beyond the four oblasts that Russia has illegally declared as annexed. Russian State Duma Defense Committee Chairperson Andrei Kartapolov told Kremlin newswire TASS on May 31 that Ukraine risks losing Zaporizhzhia, Dnipro, Sumy, Kharkiv, Odesa, and Mykolaiv cities if Ukraine refuses a peace settlement and claimed that every day that Ukraine delays a diplomatic solution to the war worsens the conditions for Ukraine.
Iran Update, May 30, 2025
May 30, 2025 - ISW Press
The Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) conducted two attacks in late May 2025 targeting transitional government forces in eastern Suwayda Province, demonstrating that ISIS retains a presence along ground lines of communication (GLOC) between the central Syrian desert and southern Syria.
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 30, 2025
May 30, 2025 - ISW Press
Russian officials continue to signal the Kremlin's uncompromising position ahead of proposed talks in Istanbul on June 2, suggesting that the upcoming Istanbul meeting is very unlikely to yield substantive results in support of an enduring peace in Ukraine.
China-Taiwan Weekly Update, May 30, 2025
May 30, 2025 - ISW Press
The People’s Republic of China (PRC) condemned the US Golden Dome space defense project for undermining global stability, despite the fact that the PRC has similarly invested in developing its military capabilities in space. Russia and North Korea issued similar criticisms, and altogether, space programs from these three countries may deny US access to space and space capabilities.