Publications

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 24, 2024

October 24, 2024 - ISW Press

Russian President Vladimir Putin failed to deny the presence of North Korean military personnel in Russia on October 24, amid official Ukrainian reports that the first North Korean military units arrived in Kursk Oblast on October 23. Ukraine's Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) reported on October 24 that the first units of North Korean personnel arrived in Kursk Oblast on October 23.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 23, 2024

October 23, 2024 - ISW Press

The adoption of the Kazan Declaration on the second day of the BRICS summit in Kazan, Republic of Tatarstan on October 23 demonstrated that Russia has not yet secured the international support nor created the alternative security structure that the Kremlin desires.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 22, 2024

October 22, 2024 - ISW Press

Ukrainian forces conducted a series of drone strikes on the night of October 21 to 22 targeting distilleries in Russia that reportedly manufacture products for the Russian military. Tula Oblast Governor Dmitry Milyaev claimed that a Ukrainian drone strike damaged distilleries in Yefremov and Luzhlovsky.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 21, 2024

October 21, 2024 - ISW Press

Moldova's October 20 European Union (EU) referendum passed by an extremely narrow margin in large part due to support from the Moldovan diaspora, and current Moldovan President Maia Sandu will face Alexandr Stoianoglo in a second round of voting on November 3.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 20, 2024

October 20, 2024 - ISW Press

Ukrainian forces conducted drone strikes against the Lipetsk-2 Air Base near Lipetsk City and Russian state-owned defense enterprise Sverdlov in Dzerzhinsk, Nizhny Novgorod Oblast on the night of October 19 to 20.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 19, 2024

October 19, 2024 - ISW Press

Ukrainian drones reportedly struck the "Kremniy El" microelectronic plant in Bryansk City on the night of October 18 to 19. Russian opposition outlet Astra reported on October 19 that Ukrainian drones struck the plant and noted that "Kremniy El" is one of Russia's largest microelectronic manufacturers and that the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) is one of the company's main customers.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 18, 2024

October 18, 2024 - ISW Press

South Korea's National Intelligence Service reported that North Korea transferred roughly 1,500 North Korean special forces to eastern Russia, where they are reportedly training before deploying to participate in Russia's war against Ukraine.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 17, 2024

October 17, 2024 - ISW Press

Russian sources reported on October 16 that unspecified actors killed the deputy commander of Russia's Special Operations Forces (SSO) Training Center, Nikita Klenkov, near Moscow City.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 16, 2024

October 16, 2024 - ISW Press

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky presented Ukraine's five-part Victory Plan aimed at winning the war by the end of 2025 to the Verkhovna Rada on October 16, which includes a promise to contribute experienced Ukrainian troops to defending NATO's eastern flank following the resolution of the war in Ukraine.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 15, 2024

October 15, 2024 - ISW Press

The Kremlin is likely leveraging the recent June 2024 Russia-North Korea comprehensive strategic partnership agreement in part to offset Russian force generation and border security requirements—further cementing Russian President Vladimir Putin's commitment to avoiding mobilization for as long as possible.

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