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ISIS continued to pursue its regional campaign objectives of establishing affiliates and increasing disorder throughout historically Muslim lands. ISIS is preparing for a global surge of activities before and during the Islamic holy month of Ramadan, which will take place between June 6 and July 5, 2016.
Russia continued to aggressively posture against NATO in the Baltic and Black Sea regions while presenting itself as a responsible regional actor and victim of alleged western provocation. The first meeting of the NATO-Russia Council since June 2014 failed to make concrete progress, and the Russian Minister of Defense accused NATO of provocative troop deployments in Eastern Europe.
U.S. President Barack Obama announced his decision to deploy 250 additional Special Operations Forces to northern Syria, raising the total number of U.S. personnel in the country to 300. Obama emphasized that the new forces will “not be leading the fight on the ground” but instead work to recruit, train, and assist Sunni Arab fighters within the U.S.-backed Syrian Democratic Forces in preparation for future operations to isolate the ISIS stronghold of Ar-Raqqa City.
Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and his allies have set the stage for an imminent offensive to complete the encirclement of Aleppo City. If successful, this could deliver a decisive blow to the powerful armed groups in Aleppo City that drives the opposition towards radicalization and a merger with Syrian Al-Qaeda affiliate Jabhat al-Nusra.
Since the publication of ISW’s last ISIS sanctuary map on March 31, 2016, ISIS lost terrain in Iraq and Syria. Iraqi Security Forces (ISF) recaptured the city of Hit in Anbar Province, western Iraq from ISIS on April 14 as part of ongoing operations to secure the Euphrates River Valley. Popular Mobilization Units (PMU) forces also continue to contest ISIS's control in the Makhoul Mountains, north of Baiji.
Iraq's political crisis is cresting to a point where the collapse of the government is a distinct possibility. Thi document examines and excerpts the relevant sections of the Iraqi Constitution related to the powers to dismiss and/or dissolve the various bodies and positions in the Iraqi government.
ISW's timeline presents the major meetings and events leading to Iraq's current political crisis. Spanning 7 weeks, this timeline details nearly 70 individual meetings related to the political crisis precipitated by Prime Minister Abadi’s announcement of an impending Cabinet shuffle. The meetings demonstrate the level of negotiations between international and regional actors and Iraq’s major political blocs to find a solution to Iraq’s ongoing political crisis.
Syrian Prime Minister Wael al-Halqi announced that Russia and Syria are preparing a joint operation to seize Aleppo City on April 10. This map marks the return of ISW's Syria SITREP in partnership with Syria Direct.
The rump Council of Representatives (CoR) barricaded itself in the Parliament building after an overnight sit in on April 13 to 14. The parliamentary remnant illegally convened a session, voted amongst itself to dismiss CoR Speaker Salim al-Juburi, and elected a new provisional speaker.
The ANSF is unprepared to counter the Taliban militants’ summer campaign. Northern warlords will take advantage of Taliban militants’ gains to establish themselves as security providers and gain leverage against the fragile National Unity Government.