ISIS has been taking defensive measures in Mosul in anticipation of an operation to retake the city.
In the week following the Ukrainian surrender of Debaltseve, a strategic rail junction between the separatist strongholds of Donetsk and Luhansk, the conflict has exhibited a pattern of hostilities reminiscent of the frequently violated ceasefire period from September 2014 to January 2015.
ISIS has likely reconstituted in areas in the southern Baghdad belt in a way that enables it to launch VBIED attacks against Baghdad.
Rebel Forces Repel Regime Advance North of Aleppo: The success of rebel forces in blunting and reversing the regime offensive north of Aleppo city indicates that regime forces remain unable to decisively complete the encirclement of Aleppo without the risk of overextension.
Security forces have reportedly cleared “most” of al-Baghdadi sub-district and are preparing operations in Salah ad-Din to recapture Tikrit.
The ISF and Shi’a religious establishment responded to calls from security forces and tribal leaders in Baghdadi to reinforce them and break the ISIS siege of the town, which falls just outside of al-Asad airbase west of Hit.
Russia and Ukraine agreed to a ceasefire in Minsk, Belarus on February 12, while the Russian-backed separatist forces had nearly encircled the key city of Debaltseve.
The purpose of this intelligence summary is to document and assess the significance of open source reports regarding ISIS (the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham) activity outside of Iraq and Syria (ISIS Abroad).
ISIS continues its offensive in Anbar near the al-Asad Airbase.
Iran Raises its Posture in Southern Syria: IRGC Quds Force commander General Qassem Suleimani’s appearance along regime frontlines validates reports of Iranian command-and-control over the ongoing offensive in Dera’a Province.