Publications

Pro-regime Forces in Idlib Posture for Resumption of Offensive

May 20, 2020 - ISW Press

The ceasefire in Greater Idlib remains tenuous. Recent force disposition indicates that the Syrian Regime is preparing for a renewed offensive in Southern Idlib Province should the ceasefire break down, but both the timing and likelihood of the offensive’s success remain uncertain and conditions dependent. A renewed regime offensive will require Russian support to sustainably seize territory from anti-Assad forces. However, Russian support will likely be contingent on a new negotiated agreement between Russia and Turkey, and the COVID-19 pandemic will likely delay such negotiations. The Syrian regime may attempt an offensive without Russian support despite the likelihood that it will be unsuccessful. Any regime offensive, whether Russian-backed or unilateral, will exacerbate the ongoing humanitarian crisis in Greater Idlib.

Turkey’s Military Buildup in Syria’s Idlib Province

March 31, 2020 -

The Turkish Armed Forces (TSK) deployed roughly a division (over 20,000 soldiers) to Greater Idlib Province between February 1 and March 31, 2020. This map provides a partial assessment of which types of units Turkey deployed to each location based on publicly available information.

Turkey Commits to Idlib

March 18, 2020 - Jennifer Cafarella

The U.S. has an opportunity in Idlib to exploit the largest rift between Turkey and Russia in Syria to date while addressing a grave and dangerous humanitarian crisis, which will worsen in coming months without a robust international response. Turkey’s intervention in Idlib Province changed the military balance in northwest Syria and created an opportunity for the U.S. and Europe to engage at relatively low cost.

Opposition Insurgents Begin Seizing Terrain in Southern Syria

March 2, 2020 - Michael Land

The Syrian armed opposition insurgency in Dera'a demonstrated its growing strength on March 1 by seizing several Assad regime military positions in the province in reaction to a large regime security operation in the north of the province.

Turkey and Russia Prepared to Launch Joint Military Patrols in Syria’s Idlib

March 9, 2019 - Elizabeth Teoman

Growing Turkish-Russian military cooperation in Syria is a dangerous sign of a wider shift to a closer strategic relationship between Turkey and Russia.

Disposition of Adversary and Friendly Forces in Eastern Syria

March 9, 2019 - ISW Press

U.S. President Donald Trump’s recent decision to keep a residual force of at least 400 troops in Syria prevents the immediate takeover of valuable natural resources and infrastructure in Eastern Syria by Iran, Assad, and Russia. These actors nonetheless still have options that could lead to the defeat or expulsion of U.S. forces.

Has the U.S. Secured Its Interests in Syria?

December 20, 2018 - Jennifer Cafarella

Vital American interests remain at stake in Syria even as the U.S.-led coalition has retaken territory from the Islamic State. Jennifer Cafarella examines the decision to begin the process of withdrawing U.S. forces and the effects on key actors, including al Qaeda.

A Way Forward in Syria

April 25, 2018 - ISW Press

ISW Board Chairman Jack Keane and Danielle Pletka: The president stood by his word and didn’t tolerate the Syrian dictator’s use of weapons of mass destruction. But while the recent strike on Syria was important and necessary—it was far from sufficient.

Q&A: Chemical Weapons Attack in Syria

April 10, 2018 - ISW Press

Assad targeted a hospital and related sites with a chemical attack to inflict maximum civilian casualties. Enabled by his allies Russia and Iran, Assad likely also sought to test his freedom of action and impunity. What is at stake for the U.S. as it considers a response?

The Link Between Eastern Ghouta and US National Security

February 22, 2018 - Jennifer Cafarella

American passivity in the face of Assad’s violence, enabled by Iran and Russia, will not only deepen the humanitarian crisis, it also harms U.S. national security, Jennifer Cafarella argues in a FoxNews.com opinion essay.

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