Publications

Likely Courses of Action in the Syrian Civil War: June - December 2015

June 12, 2015 - Jennifer Cafarella

The purpose of this intelligence forecast is to outline ISW’s assessment of the courses of action available to Syrian actors and their principal benefactors over the next six months. ISW assesses that the dynamic stalemate that has defined the Syrian civil war since 2013 may be broken in this timeframe. The expansion of ISIS’s maneuver campaign into Syria’s central corridor is one potential inflection that could change the course of the war by shattering the Assad regime’s area defense strategy in western Syria.

"An Army in All Corners:" Assad's Campaign Strategy in Syria

April 29, 2015 - Chris Kozak

The Assad regime is not positioned to secure an outright military victory in 2015. Manpower limitations have led Assad to adopt a military strategy of an ‘army in all corners’ which involves the establishment and defense of remote regime outposts throughout Syria in order to pin the outer bounds of a contiguous post-war Syrian state.

ISIS in Syria Campaign Update: March 31, 2015

April 2, 2015 - Jennifer Cafarella

Key Takeaway

Assad Regime Loses Idlib to Jabhat al-Nusra and Rebel Offensive

March 31, 2015 - Jennifer Cafarella
Rebel forces led by al-Qaeda affiliate Jabhat al-Nusra (JN) wrested control of Idlib City from the Assad regime on March 28, 2015. Removing the regime from a second provincial capital is arguably the biggest rebel victory since the fall of al-Raqqa to JN and rebel forces in March 2013. It represents a turning point in the Syrian civil war that is likely to alter the trajectory of the conflict in coming months, with implications for how rebels wage war in 2015.

Syrian Jihadists Signal Intent for Lebanon

March 6, 2015 - Jennifer Cafarella

Both the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS) and the al-Qaeda affiliate Jabhat al-Nusra (JN) plan to conduct attacks in Lebanon in the near term.

Jabhat al-Nusra Deepens its Foothold in Northwestern Syria

November 10, 2014 - Jennifer Cafarella

Jabhat al-Nusra (JN) seized large swaths of the Jabal al-Zawiya area of southern Idlib Province (in northwest Syria bordering Turkey) from Free Syrian Army (FSA)-affiliated groups beginning in late October 2014 (see fig. 1). JN, the official al-Qaeda affiliate in Syria, began to carve out direct territorial control in Idlib Province beginning in July 2014, and its advance in southern Idlib has considerably extended its stronghold in the province.

Increased Rebel Unity Threatens Assad in Damascus and Southern Syria

October 28, 2014 - Institute for the Study of War

Rebel gains in southern Syria and efforts to sever regime supply routes north and south of Damascus indicate that the regime has lost momentum in the capital region. Rebel alliances show greater cohesion in this zone, as well a greater cooperation with Jabhat al-Nusra, while the regime is showing signs of severe manpower shortage. The regime is attempting to fill its ranks with new conscripts and reservists. The regime will likely need to reinforce its southern front in order to reverse rebel gains, though it is likely that the regime will need to sacrifice efforts elsewhere in order to provide sufficient support.

ISIS Governance in Syria

August 1, 2014 -

By Charles C. Caris & Samuel Reynolds
The Islamic State’s June 2014 announcement of a “caliphate” is not empty rhetoric. In fact, the idea of the caliphate that rests within a controlled territory is a core part of ISIS’s political vision. The ISIS grand strategy to realize this vision involves first establishing control of terrain through military conquest and then reinforcing this control through governance. This grand strategy proceeds in phases that have been laid out by ISIS itself in its publications, and elaborates a vision that it hopes will attract both fighters and citizens to its nascent state. The declaration of a caliphate in Iraq and Syria, however, raises the question: can ISIS govern?

The Fall of Yabroud and The Campaign for the Lebanese Border

March 26, 2014

As the most significant remaining rebel stronghold in the Qalamoun region, the fall of Yabroud is an important strategic victory for the regime and demonstrates improved operational planning by pro-Assad forces.

The Campaign for Homs and Aleppo

January 29, 2014 -
The influx of military support to both sides of the conflict precludes a decisive military victory for either regime or rebels and ensures the protraction of the war. A protracted fight, the end of which cannot be negotiated, is on hand.

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