Publications

The Islamic State: A Counter-Strategy for a Counter-State

July 31, 2014 - Jessica D. Lewis

by Jessica D. Lewis

Many have asked what needs to be done about the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS), the terrorist organization that recently took control of Mosul, Iraq’s second largest city. Questions range from the acceptability of airstrikes and the viability of a national unity government in Iraq to the feasibility of a counter-offensive that depends upon the remaining capacity of the Iraq Security Forces. These are important and worthy questions, and timely, because ISIS is growing stronger. But these questions preempt the rigorous analysis that is required in order to determine what the U.S. should do about ISIS and why.

Iraq’s 2014 National Elections

April 21, 2014

Iraq is experiencing a political and security crisis. Iraq’s April 30, 2014 national elections will determine the shape of Iraq’s national government for the next four years, if indeed a government can endure Iraq’s potential relapse into civil war.

Hezbollah in Syria

April 7, 2014

Hezbollah’s deepening involvement in Syria is one of the most important factors of the conflict in 2013 and 2014. The impact of Hezbollah’s involvement in Syria has been felt not just on the battlefield, where the regime now has momentum in many areas, but also in Lebanon where growing sectarian tensions have undermined security and stability.

The Islamic State of Iraq Returns to Diyala

March 31, 2014 - Jessica D. Lewis

Anbar is not the only front in Iraq on which Al Qaeda in Iraq (AQI), now operating as the Islamic State of Iraq and Sham (ISIS), is fighting in 2014. ISIS has also established a governorate in Diyala. Its spokesman has named the province the central front in the sectarian conflict he has urged.

The Campaign for Homs and Aleppo

January 29, 2014 -
The influx of military support to both sides of the conflict precludes a decisive military victory for either regime or rebels and ensures the protraction of the war. A protracted fight, the end of which cannot be negotiated, is on hand.

Assad Strikes Damascus

January 27, 2014 - Valerie Szybala

Damascus is the Syrian regime’s center of gravity. The capital of Syria has long been viewed by the rebel forces as the key to winning the war in Syria, and its loss is unthinkable for Bashar al-Assad. Thus the struggle for Damascus is existential for the regime as well as the opposition.

Al-Qaeda in Iraq Resurgent, Part II

October 3, 2013 - Jessica D. Lewis

This report is a continuation of a previous publication entitled “Al-Qaeda in Iraq Resurgent: The Breaking the Walls Campaign, Part I.”

Al-Qaeda in Iraq Resurgent

September 10, 2013 - Jessica D. Lewis

Al-Qaeda in Iraq is resurgent. This paper traces AQI’s revival in Iraq since July 2012, when the organization launched a year-long operation they named the “Breaking the Walls” campaign.

The Northern Alliance Prepares for Afghan Elections in 2014

August 2, 2013 - Mara Tchalakov

Afghan history suggests that any stable political accommodation after 2014 will be contingent on incorporating Jamiat-e Islami. The engagement of key party politicians will be critical to a smooth regime transition in Afghanistan post-Karzai.

Sectarian and Regional Conflict in the Middle East

July 3, 2013

In the early part of 2012, ISW, AEI, and the Brookings Institution undertook a war game designed to simulate a worsening of the Syrian conflict and the spillover effects of that crisis on neighboring countries. What was postulated as a hypothetical situation in fact hewed quite closely to the way in which events eventually unfolded.

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