Iran Crisis Update, December 12

Iran Crisis Update, December 12

Nicholas Carl, Zachary Coles, Johanna Moore, and Frederick W. Kagan

December 12, 5:00 pm ET

The Iran Crisis Updates are produced by the Critical Threats Project (CTP) at the American Enterprise Institute with support from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW). To receive Iran Crisis Updates via email, please subscribe here.

The Iranian regime executed a protester for the second time since the Mahsa Amini protests began as part of the regime effort to deter protest turnout and instill terror among the public. The Judiciary publicly executed 23-year-old Majid Reza Rahnavard on December 12 for “waging war against God” after he killed two security officers.[1] Judiciary Chief Gholam Hossein Mohseni Ejei defended the regime’s decision to execute arrested prisoners and instructed judges and judicial authorities to ignore critics on December 12.[2] Ejei’s remarks reaffirm his commitment to conducting these brutal executions despite some political and religious figures condemning the executions in recent days.[3] The Judiciary previously executed a protester on December 8.[4]

The Judiciary allowed the mother of Majid Reza Rahnavard to visit him in prison the day before his execution, possibly as a psychological terror tactic against the protest movement.[5] The Judiciary did not inform Rahnavard or his mother about the imminent execution. This tactic is possibly meant to keep arrested protesters and their families in constant fear.

Protest coordinators and organizations called for snap demonstrations in response to the execution of Majid Reza Rahnavard and seemingly succeeded in generating turnout on short notice. The neighborhood youth groups in Tehran, Karaj, Mashhad called for snap protests after the execution, and small demonstrations occurred in each city. CTP cannot confirm that the neighborhood youth groups and their calls were solely responsible for the demonstrations, however.

The ineffectiveness and brutal nature of the regime protest crackdown has continued to fragment the Iranian political elite. Mohammad Sarafaraz—the former president of Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting (IRIB) from 2014-16—criticized the crackdown in a video posted to YouTube on December 10.[6] IRIB is a prominent state-run media corporation, the head of which is directly appointed by Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. Sarafaraz reportedly resigned as IRIB president in 2016 over conflicts with Mojtaba Khamenei—the son of the supreme leader.[7] Sarafaraz in the YouTube video condemned the abuse, arrest, and killing of protesters and the inability of the regime to provide for its people. He specifically blamed Mojtaba Khamenei for the regime’s oppressive policies. Sarafaraz added that he has prepared his will because “some kind of accident. . . may happen to [him]. . . for saying these words.”[8] Sarafaraz is currently a member of the Supreme Cyberspace Council—a regime policy body responsible for internet regulations and state censorship. CTP previously assessed that the ineffectiveness of the crackdown is allowing and encouraging some in the political and religious establishments to criticize and debate more openly.[9]

Key Takeaways

• The Iranian regime executed a protester for the second time since the Mahsa Amini protests began as part of the regime effort to deter protest turnout and instill terror among the public.
• Protest coordinators and organizations called for demonstrations in response to the execution of Majid Reza Rahnavard and seemed to have limited success in generating turnout on short notice.
• The ineffectiveness and brutal nature of the regime protest crackdown has continued to fragment Iranian political elite.
• At least seven protests occurred in four cities across four provinces.

Anti-Regime Protests

At least seven protests occurred in four cities across four provinces on December 12. CTP assesses with moderate to high confidence that protests occurred in the following locations:

Karaj, Alborz Province[10]

• Size: Small
• Protester Activity: Protesters participated in a silent march during evening demonstrations against the regime for executing Majid Reza Rahnavard.

Shiraz, Fars Province[11]

• Size: Undetermined
• Demographic: Students
• Protester Activity: Protesters demonstrated against the regime for executing Majid Reza Rahnavard.

Mashhad, Khorasan Razavi Province[12]

• Size: Small
• Protest Activity: Protesters held demonstrations against the regime for executing Majid Reza Rahnavard.

Mashhad, Khorasan Razavi Province[13]

• Size: Small
• Protest Activity: Protesters held evening demonstrations against the regime for executing Majid Reza Rahnavard.

Tehran City, Tehran Province[14]

• Size: Small
• Demographic: Allameh Tabatabei University students
• Protester Activity: Protesters demonstrated against the regime for executing Majid Reza Rahnavard.

Tehran City, Tehran Province[15]

• Size: Small
• Demographic: Shahid Beheshti University students

Tehran City, Tehran Province[16]

• Size: Small
• Protester Activity: Protesters held evening demonstrations against the regime for executing Majid Reza Rahnavard.
• Area: Ekbatan and Chitgar neighborhoods of Tehran.

Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) Ground Forces Commander Brigadier General Mohammad Pak Pour met with Artesh Ground Forces Commander Brigadier General Kiomars Heydari to discuss unspecified cooperation on December 12.[18] It unclear whether Pak Pour and Heydari discussed protest suppression.

Axis of Resistance and Regional Developments

The Iraqi central government and the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) are continuing border security cooperation in response to Iranian demands.[19] Iraqi Interior Minister Abdul Shammari met with KRG Interior Minister Rebar Ahmed in Erbil to discuss Border Guard deployments along Iraq’s borders with Iran and Turkey on December 12. Iraqi Border Guard Commander Major General Mohammad Sukkar stated that Erbil and Baghdad are allocating additional human and material resources to support future deployments. The Iraqi Interior Ministry recently announced plans to open volunteer applications to the public in Iraq and the Kurdistan Region, however, Kurdish volunteer and regular troops will likely comprise the only Border Guard forces present in Iraqi Kurdistan.[20]

Al Quds published a report claiming that Iran paused financial transfers to some Palestinian militias in September 2022.[21] Unidentified officials from unspecified militia factions told Al Quds that the pause in funding has created a financial crisis for many militias, especially for those operating in the Gaza Strip.[22] The officials also claimed the pause “may be related to the internal events taking place in [Iran].”[23] Al Quds is a heavily circulated Palestinian news outlet based in Jerusalem.

[1] https://www.sharghdaily dot com/%D8%A8%D8%AE%D8%B4-%D8%B3%DB%8C%D8%A7%D8%B3%D8%AA-6/864223-%D8%A7%D8%B9%D8%AF%D8%A7%D9%85-%D9%85%D8%AC%DB%8C%D8%AF%D8%B1%D8%B6%D8%A7-%D8%B1%D9%87%D9%86%D9%88%D8%B1%D8%AF-%D8%AF%D8%B1-%D9%85%D9%84%D8%A3%D8%B9%D8%A7%D9%85

[2] https://www.tasnimnews dot com/fa/news/1401/09/21/2820291

[3] https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/iran-crisis-update-december-11

[4] https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/iran-crisis-update-december-8

[5] https://twitter.com/yashar/status/1602413902419005441

[6] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qva-dN8DY7E

[7] https://www.radiofarda.com/a/32172444.html

[8] https://www.radiofarda.com/a/32172444.html

[9] https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/iran-crisis-update-december-11

[10] https://twitter.com/ManotoNews/status/1602392683846434817?s=20&t=3irjLlw...

[11] https://twitter.com/iranworkers/status/1602295112855347200?s=20&t=pWFiIu...

[12] https://twitter.com/iranworkers/status/1602314244824899585?s=20&t=Q72eDF...

[13] https://twitter.com/RadioFarda_/status/1602399104792989704?s=20&t=Ua80-G...; https://twitter.com/RadioFarda_/status/1602385578456121368?s=20&t=L1HknC...

[14] https://twitter.com/RadioFarda_/status/1602269015245733888?s=20&t=xs5dfa...; https://twitter.com/iranworkers/status/1602266427347664897?s=20&t=rlXTVc...

[15] https://twitter.com/RadioFarda_/status/1602320243782828035?s=20&t=whDsjz...; https://twitter.com/iranworkers/status/1602243613957799936?s=20&t=3JNY2h...

[16] https://twitter.com/RadioFarda_/status/1602392352030588934?s=20&t=JEq5SY...; https://twitter.com/1500tasvir/status/1602383814092791808?s=20&t=t8m4r0q...

[17] www.haalvsh dot org/2022/12/1011078

[18] www.defapress dot ir/fa/news/561016

[19] https://shafaq(dot)com/ar/%D8%A3%D9%85%D9%80%D9%86/%D9%82%D8%A7-%D8%AF-%D9%82%D9%88%D8%A7%D8%AA-%D8%AD%D8%B1%D8%B3-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%AD%D8%AF%D9%88%D8%AF-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%AA%D9%86%D8%B3%D9%8A%D9%82-%D9%85%D8%B9-%D8%A7%D9%84-%D9%82%D9%84%D9%8A%D9%85-%D8%A8%D8%B4-%D9%86-%D9%85%D8%B3%D9%83-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%AD%D8%AF%D9%88%D8%AF-%D9%85%D8%B9-%D9%8A%D8%B1%D8%A7%D9%86-%D9%88%D8%AA%D8%B1%D9%83%D9%8A%D8%A7-%D8%AC%D9%8A%D8%AF

https://www(dot)kurdistan24.net/ar/story/33335-%D9%88%D8%B2%D9%8A%D8%B1-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%AF%D8%A7%D8%AE%D9%84%D9%8A%D8%A9-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%B9%D8%B1%D8%A7%D9%82%D9%8A-%D9%8A%D8%B5%D9%84-%D8%A5%D9%84%D9%89-%D8%A3%D8%B1%D8%A8%D9%8A%D9%84-%D8%B9%D9%84%D9%89-%D8%B1%D8%A3%D8%B3-%D9%88%D9%81%D8%AF-%D8%B1%D9%81%D9%8A%D8%B9

[20] https://twitter.com/socialmoigoviq/status/1600865015791165440

[21] https://www dot alquds dot com/posts/f657791f-f870-4d98-8013-08434258ef65

[22] https://www dot alquds dot com/posts/f657791f-f870-4d98-8013-08434258ef65

[23] https://www dot alquds dot com/posts/f657791f-f870-4d98-8013-08434258ef65