Publications

Iran Update, May 23, 2025

May 23, 2025 - ISW Press

Iran may try to secure an interim nuclear deal before negotiating a comprehensive nuclear agreement to delay or prevent a US or Israeli strike on Iranian nuclear facilities and the imposition of snapback sanctions by the E3 (the United Kingdom, France, and Germany), as CTP-ISW previously assessed.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 23, 2025

May 23, 2025 - ISW Press

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov demanded that any future peace agreement in Ukraine include conditions to prevent the election and establishment of future pro-Western governments in Ukraine.

China-Taiwan Weekly Update, May 23, 2025

May 23, 2025 - ISW Press

The People’s Republic of China (PRC) continued its messaging to vilify and delegitimize Taiwanese President William Lai Ching-te around the anniversary of his inauguration.

Iran Update, May 22, 2025

May 22, 2025 - ISW Press

A visit to southeastern Iran by a senior Iranian officer illustrates Tehran’s security concerns over anti-regime militancy in southeastern Iran.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 22, 2025

May 22, 2025 - ISW Press

Russian President Vladimir Putin is fostering the formation of an informal state ideology based on Russian nationalism that positions Russia in opposition to the West as part of ongoing efforts to militarize and unify Russian society.

Africa File, May 22, 2025: SAF Advances Across Sudan Despite RSF Drone Strikes

May 22, 2025 - ISW Press

The Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) have made incremental progress against the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in several areas of Sudan since mid-May despite RSF counterattacks and the RSF’s drone campaign against Port Sudan. The SAF renewed attacks against the RSF in central Sudan along a key highway linking central and western Sudan and made gains in northern Sudan.

Russian Occupation Update, May 22, 2025

May 22, 2025 - ISW Press

A bipartisan group of US senators introduced a resolution on May 20 calling for Russia to return all the Ukrainian children it has deported before finalizing any peace agreement to end Russia’s war in Ukraine.[1] The resolution acknowledges that Russia’s widescale deportation of Ukrainian children “demonstrates the intent of the government of the Russian Federation to erase the Ukrainian nation and identity” and condemns Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine and the disproportionate harm Russia has inflicted on children.

Iran Update, May 21, 2025

May 21, 2025 - ISW Press

An unsanctioned oil tanker that is operated by a US-sanctioned entity and has probably illicitly transported oil to the People’s Republic of China (PRC) from Iran issued a false distress call in the Strait of Hormuz on May 20. The Panamanian-flagged oil tanker the Themir likely issued a distress call that claimed it had been hijacked.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 21, 2025

May 21, 2025 - ISW Press

Russian President Vladimir Putin likely orchestrated a meeting with Kursk Oblast officials on May 20 to set conditions to justify the renewal of Russian plans to seize Sumy City and illegally annex Sumy Oblast. Putin met with municipal leaders in Kursk Oblast on May 20, during which the head of Glushkovsky Raion, Pavel Zolotarev, asked Putin to create a buffer zone in Sumy Oblast.

Russian Force Generation and Technological Adaptations Update, May 21, 2025

May 21, 2025 - ISW Press

Russian President Vladimir Putin continues to prioritize leveraging migrants to mitigate ongoing labor shortages, despite ongoing complaints from Russian ultranationalists advocating for the Kremlin to impose harsher restrictions on migrants.

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