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Iran may try to secure an interim nuclear deal before negotiating a comprehensive nuclear agreement to delay or prevent a US or Israeli strike on Iranian nuclear facilities and the imposition of snapback sanctions by the E3 (the United Kingdom, France, and Germany), as CTP-ISW previously assessed.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov demanded that any future peace agreement in Ukraine include conditions to prevent the election and establishment of future pro-Western governments in Ukraine.
The People’s Republic of China (PRC) continued its messaging to vilify and delegitimize Taiwanese President William Lai Ching-te around the anniversary of his inauguration.
A visit to southeastern Iran by a senior Iranian officer illustrates Tehran’s security concerns over anti-regime militancy in southeastern Iran.
Russian President Vladimir Putin is fostering the formation of an informal state ideology based on Russian nationalism that positions Russia in opposition to the West as part of ongoing efforts to militarize and unify Russian society.
The Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) have made incremental progress against the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in several areas of Sudan since mid-May despite RSF counterattacks and the RSF’s drone campaign against Port Sudan. The SAF renewed attacks against the RSF in central Sudan along a key highway linking central and western Sudan and made gains in northern Sudan.
A bipartisan group of US senators introduced a resolution on May 20 calling for Russia to return all the Ukrainian children it has deported before finalizing any peace agreement to end Russia’s war in Ukraine.[1] The resolution acknowledges that Russia’s widescale deportation of Ukrainian children “demonstrates the intent of the government of the Russian Federation to erase the Ukrainian nation and identity” and condemns Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine and the disproportionate harm Russia has inflicted on children.
An unsanctioned oil tanker that is operated by a US-sanctioned entity and has probably illicitly transported oil to the People’s Republic of China (PRC) from Iran issued a false distress call in the Strait of Hormuz on May 20. The Panamanian-flagged oil tanker the Themir likely issued a distress call that claimed it had been hijacked.
Russian President Vladimir Putin likely orchestrated a meeting with Kursk Oblast officials on May 20 to set conditions to justify the renewal of Russian plans to seize Sumy City and illegally annex Sumy Oblast. Putin met with municipal leaders in Kursk Oblast on May 20, during which the head of Glushkovsky Raion, Pavel Zolotarev, asked Putin to create a buffer zone in Sumy Oblast.
Russian President Vladimir Putin continues to prioritize leveraging migrants to mitigate ongoing labor shortages, despite ongoing complaints from Russian ultranationalists advocating for the Kremlin to impose harsher restrictions on migrants.