The Kremlin is projecting the narrative of a powerful Russia and a powerful Russian President Vladimir Putin to conceal the real weaknesses and limitations of Russia's capabilities and distract from Russia's battlefield failures.

Russian President Vladimir Putin invaded Ukraine over three years ago with the intent, among other things, of stealing its children.


Russia dedicated staggering amounts of manpower and equipment to several major offensive efforts in Ukraine in 2024, intending to degrade Ukrainian defenses and seize the remainder of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts.

The United States can use the enormous challenges Russia will face in 2025 as leverage to secure critical concessions in ongoing negotiations to end the war by continuing and even expanding military support to Ukraine.

Some peace deals lead to peace, others to more war. The Minsk II deal aimed to end Russia’s limited invasion of Ukraine in 2015 but instead laid the groundwork for the full-scale Russian invasion in 2022.

Latest from ISW

Iran Update, May 28 2025

Iran and the United States appear to be trying to secure an interim nuclear deal before negotiating a comprehensive nuclear agreement. It is unclear if the reported interim deal that Iran seeks will satisfy US demands. Iran may be portraying itself as willing to make concessions in order to prevent the talks from collapsing and potentially triggering an Israeli strike on Iranian nuclear facilities.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 27, 2025

The Kremlin is setting conditions to establish permanent control over the Russian-occupied Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP), suggesting that Russia plans to illegally occupy and annex additional territory in Ukraine. Greenpeace's Ukraine service reported on May 27 that satellite imagery from early February 2025 to May 23, 2025, shows that Russia has laid 90 kilometers of powerlines near the Sea of Azov in occupied Donetsk and Zaporizhia oblasts.

Iran Update, May 27, 2025

Salafi-jihadi groups, such as the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS), have increased their activity in Syria in May 2025. Syrian Interior Ministry spokesperson Noureddine al Baba said that ISIS activity has spiked in the period since the fall of the Assad regime due to ISIS cells’ seizures of former Assad regime weapons stocks.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 25, 2025

Russian President Vladimir Putin is leveraging long-range strikes against Ukrainian cities, aggressive rhetorical campaigns, and excessive pessimism in the West about the battlefield situation in Ukraine in a multi-pronged effort to degrade Ukrainian morale and convince the West that a Russian victory in Ukraine is inevitable and that supporting Ukraine is futile. Russian forces have intensified long-range strikes against Ukraine over the last eight months and have conducted seven of the largest drone and missile strikes during the war to date since January 2025.