Iran Project

Palestinian militias continued drone and indirect fire attacks into Israel, primarily southern Israel. CTP-ISW did not record any reports of infiltrations or small arms clashes in southern Israel.
The rate of small arms clashes between Israeli forces and Palestinian militants has continued to fall after peaking on October 13.
Lebanese Hezbollah expanded its campaign against Israeli forces along the Israel-Lebanon border in terms of pace, location, and actors involved. The IDF spokesperson stated that Iran has instructed LH to escalate against Israel and thereby impose pressure on the IDF while it prepares for ground operations into the Gaza Strip.
The IDF conducted an airstrike on the Aleppo International Airport, marking the second time that the IDF has struck this location since the war began on October 7.
Iran and elements of its Axis of Resistance are messaging that the Hamas-Israel war could expand geographically into a multi-front conflict. CTP-ISW is closely monitoring the situation to forecast whether such a scenario is becoming more or less likely.
Iranian Foreign Affairs Minister Abdollahian met with senior Hamas and Qatari officials during an official visit to Doha.

Hamas continued its ground and rocket attacks into Israel, primarily southern Israel, on October 14. The al Qassem Brigades—Hamas’ militant wing—claimed responsibility for conducting rocket attacks on 12 locations, including Tel Aviv. Saraya al Quds—the militant wing of Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ)—claimed responsibility for launching rockets on seven locations in southern Israel. Hamas has reduced its rate of rocket fire into Israeli territory since October 12 to conserve its stockpile and prepare for a prolonged war.

Hamas continued conducting rocket attacks into Israel at a lower rate of fire on October 13 compared to previous days. Hamas began reducing its rate of attacks on October 12 to conserve its rocket stockpile and prepare for a prolonged war, as CTP and ISW previously reported. Hamas targeted northern, central, and southern Israel on October 13. Hamas’ military spokesman announced that the group fired 150 rockets at Ashkelon, 50 rockets at Sderot, and bombed the Ben Gurion Airport in central Israel. Israeli civilians have evacuated the periphery areas of Gaza. Hamas’ al Qassem Brigades claimed that the rocket barrages are in response to Israel’s displacement and targeting of civilians. The IDF’s operational update on October 13 notes that militants have launched 6,000 rockets from Gaza. CTP-ISW previously reported that Hamas and the Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) have expended around 33 percent of their rocket arsenal since the war began.

Hamas continued rocket attacks from the Gaza Strip into southern Israel but reduced the rate of these attacks on October 13. An IDF commander stated that Hamas is trying to conserve its rocket stockpile and prepare for a prolonged war. Israel estimates that Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) have expended around 33 percent of their rocket arsenal since the war began on October 7.

Hamas incursions into southern Israel by land and sea have slowed since October 9. Palestinian militant groups are now relying on rocket barrages and attack drones to hit towns in northern and southern Israel. Rocket fire from Gaza extended north to Haifa and multiple barrages have hit Tel Aviv. The Hamas spokesperson warned Israeli civilians to evacuate Ashkelon near the Gaza border before the group launched hundreds of rockets on October 10, claiming the attack was retribution for Israeli airstrikes on Gaza. Hamas warnings have not preceded such rocket barrages previously. Israel conducted strikes in over 1,270 locations in Gaza and killed at least three Hamas leaders over the two-day period. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) spokesperson stated early on October 10 that its forces regained control of the Gaza border. Clashes continued in isolated pockets immediately north and east of the Gaza Strip on October 10 and 11, however.

Hamas is expanding its incursions into southern Israel as Palestinian militias in the West Bank and Lebanese Hezbollah (LH) clash with Israeli security forces in the northern province of the country. The situation could expand the war to a second front. Hamas launched a surprise ground and air attack into Israel on October 7 which included sending hundreds of fighters into Israel to attack nearby border posts, military sites, and residential areas. Israel is conducting airstrikes in Gaza to retaliate. Iran’s Axis of Resistance is aligning itself with Hamas’ operation, however.

Palestinian militias in Gaza responded to calls from Hamas to join in fighting against Israeli security forces on October 8. Lebanese Hezbollah (LH) and Palestinian militias also conducted attacks on Israeli positions from south Lebanon and the West Bank, respectively, which could expand the war to a second front.

Hamas has launched a surprise ground and air attack into Israel, marking the most significant escalation between the two sides in decades. Hundreds of Hamas fighters crossed from the Gaza Strip into Israeli territory and attacked nearby border posts, military sites, and residential areas on October 7.

Key Takeaways
1. Turkey has conducted a series of airstrikes in northern Syria against the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF)—the United States’ sole security partner in the country—since October 5. These attacks are placing significant pressure on the SDF, which, in turn, puts at risk the US mission to defeat ISIS.
2. Iran has demanded that the Iraqi central government extradite members of Iranian Kurdish opposition groups to Iran, according to independent Iraqi outlet Al Mada. Such a demand would appear to violate international law.

Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) personnel backfilled a formerly Wagner-held position in Sukhnah in central Syria on September 28, supporting Iranian efforts to establish a permanent presence in Syria. Wagner forces withdrew from Sukhnah, among other positions in the central Syrian desert, in September 2023 as part of Wagner’s departure from Syria. The Russian Defense Ministry had previously instructed Wagner forces to leave Syria or join the Russian armed forces by September 20. Iran commonly uses the route running through Sukhnah to move forces and weapons throughout Syria, which the backfilling may further facilitate.