Iran Update, December 11, 2024
December 11, 2024 - ISW Press
Hayat Tahrir al Sham (HTS) leader Abu Mohammed al Jolani is attempting to consolidate HTS’s political and military control in a post-interim Syrian government.
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Publications
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 11, 2024
December 11, 2024 - ISW Press
Russian forces continue to make tactical gains south of Pokrovsk as they attack into Ukrainian weak points and attempt to conduct a turning maneuver to directly assault Pokrovsk from the south.
Iran Update, December 10, 2024
December 10, 2024 - ISW Press
Senior Syrian officials from the deposed Bashar al Assad regime have begun to transfer power to the HTS-led interim government as of December 10. Outgoing Prime Minister Mohammed al Jalili reported that former Assad officials are working with the interim government to preserve state institutions and government workers’ jobs. The chief executive of Sawsan Abu Zainedin—an umbrella group of 200 Syrian civil society groups—emphasized that the interim government would refrain from the “de-Baathification” of the Syrian state.
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 10, 2024
December 10, 2024 - ISW Press
Russia's force posture around Syria continues to reflect the Kremlin's current cautious and indecisive response to the fall of Bashar al Assad's regime. Sentinel-2 satellite imagery from December 10 shows that Russian ships have still not returned to Syria's Port of Tartus and that the Russian Mediterranean Sea Flotilla is still in a holding pattern about eight to 15km away from Tartus. Open-source analyst MT Anderson identified four Russian ships within this radius as of December 10—the Admiral Golovko Gorshkov-class frigate, the Admiral Grigorovich Grigorovich-class frigate, the Novorossiysk Improved Kilo-class submarine, and the Vyazma Kaliningradneft-class oiler.
The Reshaping of Iran’s Axis of Resistance
December 10, 2024 - ISW Press
The fall of the Bashar al Assad regime in Syria marks the end of the greater Iranian project in the Levant for the foreseeable future. This defeat comes as the other main pillars of Iranian influence in the Levant—Hamas in the Gaza Strip and Hezbollah in Lebanon—are badly diminished from months of fighting the Israel Defense Forces (IDF). These dynamics amount to the collapse of the Axis of Resistance’s western front.
Iran Update, December 9, 2024
December 9, 2024 - ISW Press
Hayat Tahrir al Sham (HTS) is establishing a transitional government and reconciling with members of the former Syrian regime and the Syrian Arab Army (SAA). HTS is likely attempting to improve its image among the Syrian people and international community by framing itself as an organization that is devoted to building a pluralist Syrian state. The Kurdish-controlled, US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) may face increased challenges governing Arab areas in northeastern Syria due to the emergence of the HTS-led transitional government as a viable alternative to the SDF.
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 9, 2024
December 9, 2024 - ISW Press
The Kremlin continues to cautiously signal that it can ensure the security of Russian military bases in Syria in the short-term but notably has expressed uncertainty about the long-term future of the military bases against the backdrop of the volatile and rapidly evolving political situation in Syria.
Iran Update, December 8, 2024
December 8, 2024 - ISW Press
Syrian opposition forces toppled the Bashar al Assad regime on December 7 after only 11 days of fighting. Opposition forces declared victory over Assad as they advanced into Damascus. The regime negotiated its surrender as Assad fled to Russia without making any statements to his people to acknowledge the instability.
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 8, 2024
December 8, 2024 - ISW Press
The rapid collapse of the Assad regime in Syria – a regime that the Kremlin helped prop up since 2015 – is a strategic political defeat for Moscow and has thrown the Kremlin into a crisis as it seeks to retain its strategic military basing in Syria.
Iran Update, December 7, 2024
December 7, 2024 - ISW Press
The Bashar al Assad regime faces imminent collapse. The Syrian Arab Army (SAA) appears to have already collapsed itself, as its units have fled repeatedly from advancing opposition forces across the country. The SAA is combat ineffective and has yet to present a meaningful defense against the advancing opposition. The opposition forces led by Hayat Tahrir al Sham (HTS) have exploited the collapse of the SAA by advancing further southward and taking control of Homs City, which is the last major obstacle before Damascus. Various opposition groups have similarly taken control of large swaths of central and southern Syria and begun advancing into the southern and eastern outskirts of Damascus. The Assad regime appears to only control parts of Damascus and the western Syrian coast at the time of this writing. Syrian President Bashar al Assad has been entirely absent through the crisis and has refrained from making any public address. Some unverified reports have suggested that Assad has fled, possibly to Iran.