Publications

Iraq Situation Report: February 20 - 25, 2020

March 2, 2020 - Brandon Wallace

ISW is assessing the ongoing unrest and its effects on political-security dynamics in Iraq. The Iraq Situation Report (SITREP) map series summarizes key events and likely developments to come. The following SITREP map covers the period February 20 - 25, 2020.

Iraq Situation Report: February 13 - 19, 2020

February 27, 2020 - Brandon Wallace

ISW is assessing the ongoing unrest and its effects on political-security dynamics in Iraq. The Iraq Situation Report (SITREP) map series summarizes key events and likely developments to come. The following SITREP map covers the period February 13 - 19, 2020.

Iraq Situation Report: February 7 - 12, 2020

February 21, 2020 - Brandon Wallace

Confrontation between protesters and Iraqi Security Forces (ISF) flared in Nasiriyah, Dhi Qar, after protesters there demanded the government hold a referendum on newly designated Prime Minister (PM) Mohammed Tawfiq Allawi. Protesters likely felt emboldened to demand new change when the PM-designate met with popular, former CTS commander Lieutenant General Abdul-Wahab al-Saadi, whose firing was a major spark for the start of mass protests in October. Three days after the demand for a referendum, unidentified ISF used live ammunition to disperse protesters blocking access to al-Ain University buildings in Nasiriyah.

Iraq’s Political Elite Identify Consensus Candidate for Prime Minister-Designee

February 3, 2020 - Brandon Wallace

Iraq’s President Barham Salih asked Mohammed Tawfiq Allawi to attempt to form a government and serve as prime minister. Allawi holds no parliamentary, popular, or military leverage and is unlikely to gain the necessary political capital to address the demands of protesters or challenge parliamentary powerbrokers. Allawi will not immediately take office – his cabinet must still be formed and approved.

ISIS Re-Establishes Historical Sanctuary in Iraq

March 7, 2019 - ISW Press

ISIS’s post-Caliphate insurgency in Iraq is accelerating faster than efforts to prevent it. ISIS is re-establishing capable insurgent networks in multiple historic strongholds, setting the conditions for future offensive operations against the Government of Iraq.

Breaking Down Iraq's Election Results

May 24, 2018 -

Iraqi Shi'a cleric Muqtada al-Sadr and other key powerbrokers are in negotiations to form a governing coalition with a majority of seats in Iraq's parliament following the May 2018 election.

Ayad Allawi Sets Conditions to Recreate 2011 Premiership Bid

March 9, 2018 - ISW Press

Iraqi Vice President Ayad Allawi is presenting himself as a viable Shi’a reformist alternative to Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi in the upcoming Iraqi legislative elections slated for May 12, 2018. Allawi will likely leverage his opposition to the expansion of the Iranian influence in Iraq, reformist stance and support for the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) to draw Shi’a Sadrist and some Kurdish support in the post-election premier selection phase.

Electoral Shifts Likely Following Deadline Extension for Candidates

February 12, 2018 - Jessa "Rose" Dury-Agri

Iraq’s political parties will use a week-long extension on the submission of electoral list candidates to reshape unofficial and official electoral list alliances.

Iraq’s Judiciary Rules against Sunni Politician Ahead of Iraqi Elections

February 9, 2018 - Omer Kassim

Vice President Nouri al-Maliki–seeking to regain the premiership–is likely leveraging his influence over the judicial process to marginalize political rivals ahead of the legislative and provincial elections, slated for May 12, 2018. Maliki previously influenced Iraq’s judiciary and ostensibly independent bodies to eliminate rival candidates and politicians during his two terms as Prime Minister (2006-2014).

Iraqi Prime Minister’s Electoral Coalition Fractures, Signaling Change of Premier

February 2, 2018 - ISW Press

The U.S. should reassess military and political plans that rest on Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi’s continued premiership after Iraq’s May 12, 2018 elections. A series of splits from Abadi’s electoral list will increase opportunities for alternative candidates to gain the premiership. Abadi’s failed political alliance with Iranian-backed Popular Mobilization Forces and inability to maintain the confidence of Ammar al-Hakim’s political allies signals that Abadi is unable to manage varying political interests and will struggle to hold together a post-election coalition.

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