Publications

Russian Occupation Update, May 22, 2025

May 22, 2025 - ISW Press

A bipartisan group of US senators introduced a resolution on May 20 calling for Russia to return all the Ukrainian children it has deported before finalizing any peace agreement to end Russia’s war in Ukraine.[1] The resolution acknowledges that Russia’s widescale deportation of Ukrainian children “demonstrates the intent of the government of the Russian Federation to erase the Ukrainian nation and identity” and condemns Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine and the disproportionate harm Russia has inflicted on children.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 21, 2025

May 21, 2025 - ISW Press

Russian President Vladimir Putin likely orchestrated a meeting with Kursk Oblast officials on May 20 to set conditions to justify the renewal of Russian plans to seize Sumy City and illegally annex Sumy Oblast. Putin met with municipal leaders in Kursk Oblast on May 20, during which the head of Glushkovsky Raion, Pavel Zolotarev, asked Putin to create a buffer zone in Sumy Oblast.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 20, 2025

May 20, 2025 - ISW Press

Senior Russian officials continue to deny the legitimacy of the Ukrainian president, government, and constitution and Ukraine's sovereignty despite Russian President Vladimir Putin's recent efforts to feign interest in peace negotiations to end the war. Russian Security Council Secretary Dmitry Medvedev claimed during the St. Petersburg International Legal Forum on May 20 that there are currently no Ukrainian officials with the authority to conclude a peace treaty with Russia and that Russia may need to consult Ukraine’s Constitution to identify authorized negotiation partners.

Russian Occupation Update, May 19, 2025

May 19, 2025 - ISW Press

The Russian “Voin” military-patriotic training center network has taken “patronage” over orphans from occupied Donetsk Oblast and intends to train these orphans for service in the Russian armed forces.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 19, 2025

May 19, 2025 - ISW Press

US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin held a phone call on May 19 to discuss ceasefire and peace negotiations regarding Russia's war in Ukraine.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 18, 2025

May 18, 2025 - ISW Press

Russian forces conducted the largest single drone strike of the war against Ukraine on the night of May 17 to 18 – in disregard of US President Donald Trump's calls for Russia to stop long-range strikes against Ukraine, particularly against Kyiv Oblast.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 17, 2025

May 17, 2025 - ISW Press

The Russian delegation in Istanbul reportedly framed its demands for a final peace settlement as preconditions that Ukraine must meet before Russia will agree to a ceasefire. Most of Russia's demands are contrary to US President Donald Trump's proposed peace plan... ISW continues to assess that Russia's war aim remains full Ukrainian capitulation.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 16, 2025

May 16, 2025 - ISW Press

Ukrainian and Russian delegations met in Istanbul on May 16 but made little progress towards agreeing to a full ceasefire or a peace settlement to Russia's war against Ukraine.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 15, 2025

May 15, 2025 - ISW Press

Russian President Vladimir Putin rejected Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky's invitation to engage in bilateral negotiations in Istanbul and continues refusing to offer concessions to end the war in Ukraine. Putin spoke to media organizations on the night of May 10 to 11, following the May 10 joint US-Ukrainian-European proposal for a general ceasefire for at least 30 days beginning on May 12. Putin did not agree to the joint US-Ukrainian-European proposal and instead proposed that Russia and Ukraine "resume" on May 15 the direct negotiations that he claimed Ukraine "interrupted" in 2022 in Istanbul.

Russian Occupation Update, May 15, 2025

May 15, 2025 - ISW Press

Russian sources continue to provide additional details on the scale of the planned removal and deportation of Ukrainian children to summer camps in occupied Ukraine and throughout the Russian Federation. The Kherson Oblast occupation Ministry of Education reported to Russian outlet Komsomolskaya Pravda on May 13 that 4,086 children from occupied Kherson Oblast will go to 77 summer camps and organizations throughout occupied Ukraine and Russia in Summer 2025.

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