Publications

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 7, 2025

May 7, 2025 - ISW Press

US officials acknowledged Russia's continued intransigence toward any ceasefire agreement in Ukraine while reiterating that Ukraine remains committed to US President Donald Trump's proposed comprehensive 30-day ceasefire. US Special Envoy to Ukraine General Keith Kellogg stated on May 6 that Russian President Vladimir Putin's refusal to agree to a 30-day ceasefire is the main impediment to  establishing peace in Ukraine and that Russia will be hurt if the parties do not agree to a comprehensive ceasefire, as "Russia is not winning the war."

Russian Force Generation and Technological Adaptations Update May 7, 2025

May 7, 2025 - ISW Press

Russian forces are integrating responsive tactical innovations among frontline Russian units, indicating that the Russian military is learning modern ground warfare lessons that it intends to carry on beyond the war in Ukraine.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 6, 2025

May 6, 2025 - ISW Press

Ukrainian forces continued limited attacks across the international border near Tetkino and Novyi Put, Kursk Oblast. Russian milbloggers claimed on May 6 that Russian forces repelled the Ukrainian attacks near Novyi Put and Volfino (southwest of Glushkovo) and that fighting continued near the railway station in southern Tetkino (southwest of Glushkovo). Several Russian milbloggers claimed that Ukrainian forces seized up to two streets in southwestern Tetkino, but ISW has not observed confirmation of this claim.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 5, 2025

May 5, 2025 - ISW Press

Russian sources claimed on May 5 that Ukrainian forces conducted a series of limited attacks across the Russia-Ukraine international border near Tetkino, Kursk Oblast.

Russian Occupation Update, May 5, 2025

May 5, 2025 - ISW Press

Russia is forcibly deporting Ukrainian civilians from occupied Ukraine to Russia while engaging in a deeply systematic and institutionalized policy of torture against Ukrainians held in Russian detention.

Far-Right Gains in Romania Could Advance Kremlin Objectives

May 5, 2025 - ISW Press

A far-right candidate, George Simion, won the first round of the May 4 presidential election in Romania. Simion's first round victory comes after another far-right candidate, Calin Georgescu, won the November 2024 first round presidential election that Romanian authorities later annulled due to likely Russian interference.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 4, 2025

May 4, 2025 - ISW Press

Russian President Vladimir Putin indicated that Russia maintains the initial objectives of its war in Ukraine, which are tantamount to Ukraine's surrender, despite ongoing negotiations with the United States.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 3, 2025

May 3, 2025 - ISW Press

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky denied that Ukraine would concede to the vague terms of Russian President Vladimir Putin's unilateral May 8-11 Victory Day ceasefire proposal. Zelensky referred to Putin's May 8-11 Victory Day ceasefire demand as a "theatrical production" that does not appear to be serious and is designed to create a sense of comfort and safety for participants of Russia's Victory Day celebration.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 2, 2025

May 2, 2025 - ISW Press

Russian gains along the frontline have slowed over the last four months, but Russia continues to tolerate personnel losses comparable to the casualty rate Russian forces sustained during a period of intensified advances between September and December 2024.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 1, 2025

May 1, 2025 - ISW Press

The United States and Ukraine published additional information about their April 30 bilateral economic partnership agreement. The Trump administration and the Ukrainian government published the joint text of the US-Ukraine Reconstruction Investment Fund on May 1 and reported that the agreement is a "fully collaborative partnership" that will fund Ukraine's long-term reconstruction and modernization.

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