Ukraine

Indirect fire exchanges have persisted across the front line as reports show Ukraine continuing to withdraw heavy weapons and unverified separatist claims assert their own complete withdrawal.

In the week following the Ukrainian surrender of Debaltseve, a strategic rail junction between the separatist strongholds of Donetsk and Luhansk, the conflict has exhibited a pattern of hostilities reminiscent of the frequently violated ceasefire period from September 2014 to January 2015.

Russia and Ukraine agreed to a ceasefire in Minsk, Belarus on February 12, while the Russian-backed separatist forces had nearly encircled the key city of Debaltseve.

Ukrainian and separatist forces launched surprise offensives to gain new terrain and optimize their negotiating positions ahead of peace talks in Minsk, Belarus on February 11.

Russia’s campaign in eastern Ukraine has reached an inflection point. Five months after signing a ceasefire agreement, Russian and separatist forces have moved from a preparation phase to a maneuver offensive.