This map represents the military situation at the Syrian-Turkish border as of Sept. 11, 2015. Particular attention is paid to border crossings, many of which are now closed or highly restricted and under the control of a variety of groups including the Syrian regime, ISIS, Kurds, the Al-Qaeda affiliate Jabhat al-Nusra, and Syrian rebels.
The Situation in Aleppo: June 24, 2015
Significant Syrian Offensives: June 6-July 9, 2015
The Jabhat al-Nusra and Rebel Campaign for Southern Syria: June 2014-June 2015
ISW has updated its ISIS Sanctuary map. This map, covering both Iraq and Syria, shows the extent of ISIS zones of control, attack, and support throughout both countries.
The ISIS Sanctuary Maps from the last 14 months (and longer) show how ISW has tracked the conflict and become the recognized expert on ISIS's expansion. As we approach the one-year anniversary of U.S. and coalition airstrikes against ISIS, we have collected all our Sanctuary Maps, along with examples of where they have appeared, to help show the role ISW is proud to have played in tracking ISIS.
Syrian rebel factions launched long-awaited offensives against the isolated provincial capitals of Dera’a and Aleppo Cities, located in southern and northern Syria respectively. The fall of either city to rebel forces including Syrian al-Qaeda affiliate Jabhat al-Nusra would overturn the stalemate that has long characterized the Syrian Civil War, opening the door to further offensives against core regime terrain in Damascus and the Syrian Coast.
The death of al-Qaeda’s general manager, Nasir al-Wahayshi, will likely disrupt al-Qaeda’s global operations until he is replaced. It is likely that al-Qaeda leader Aymen al-Zawahiri will nominate his replacement according to traditional leadership patterns. It is dangerous but plausible, however, that Zawahiri will seek to maximize the influence of newer al-Qaeda leaders. One possible candidate for future al-Qaeda leadership is Abu Mohammed al-Joulani, the leader of al-Qaeda’s Syrian affiliate, Jabhat al-Nusra.
The purpose of this intelligence forecast is to outline ISW’s assessment of the courses of action available to Syrian actors and their principal benefactors over the next six months. ISW assesses that the dynamic stalemate that has defined the Syrian civil war since 2013 may be broken in this timeframe.