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Russian forces conducted the largest single drone strike of the war against Ukraine on the night of May 17 to 18 – in disregard of US President Donald Trump's calls for Russia to stop long-range strikes against Ukraine, particularly against Kyiv Oblast.
The Russian delegation in Istanbul reportedly framed its demands for a final peace settlement as preconditions that Ukraine must meet before Russia will agree to a ceasefire. Most of Russia's demands are contrary to US President Donald Trump's proposed peace plan... ISW continues to assess that Russia's war aim remains full Ukrainian capitulation.
Ukrainian and Russian delegations met in Istanbul on May 16 but made little progress towards agreeing to a full ceasefire or a peace settlement to Russia's war against Ukraine.
Russian President Vladimir Putin rejected Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky's invitation to engage in bilateral negotiations in Istanbul and continues refusing to offer concessions to end the war in Ukraine. Putin spoke to media organizations on the night of May 10 to 11, following the May 10 joint US-Ukrainian-European proposal for a general ceasefire for at least 30 days beginning on May 12. Putin did not agree to the joint US-Ukrainian-European proposal and instead proposed that Russia and Ukraine "resume" on May 15 the direct negotiations that he claimed Ukraine "interrupted" in 2022 in Istanbul.
Russian sources continue to provide additional details on the scale of the planned removal and deportation of Ukrainian children to summer camps in occupied Ukraine and throughout the Russian Federation. The Kherson Oblast occupation Ministry of Education reported to Russian outlet Komsomolskaya Pravda on May 13 that 4,086 children from occupied Kherson Oblast will go to 77 summer camps and organizations throughout occupied Ukraine and Russia in Summer 2025.
The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) intensified recruitment efforts for the state-controlled Africa Corps starting in February 2025, likely in an effort to expand Russia’s military presence in Africa and raise an active reserve that the Kremlin can use in Ukraine.
The Russian military is reportedly generating enough forces to replace losses and is reinforcing the size of the Russian force grouping in Ukraine despite experiencing an increased casualty rate per square kilometer gained. Russian President Vladimir Putin appears to be embracing significant losses in exchange for diminishing returns to make battlefield gains and manage perceptions about Russia’s military capabilities to pressure Ukraine in negotiations.
Russian officials appear to be setting conditions for Russian President Vladimir Putin to reject Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky's invitation to meet on May 15 in Istanbul for bilateral ceasefire negotiations.
An international coalition comprised of Ukraine and its partners agreed on May 9 to establish a special tribunal to investigate and prosecute the Russian crime of aggression against Ukraine. The Council of Europe will house the special tribunal, which seeks to prosecute Russian political and military leaders for the international crime of aggression—defined as the use of armed force by one state against the sovereignty, integrity, or independence of another state.
Russian President Vladimir Putin called for Russia and Ukraine to resume bilateral negotiations based on the early 2022 Istanbul protocols that include Russian demands amounting to full Ukrainian surrender. Any agreement based on those protocols would be a capitulation document.