Publications

Iran Update, May 20, 2025

May 20, 2025 - ISW Press

Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei expressed pessimism about the US-Iran nuclear negotiations and explicitly rejected the US demand for zero uranium enrichment. Khamenei’s statements are consistent with CTP-ISW's assessment that disagreements between Iran and the United States about the issue of zero uranium enrichment may stall the negotiations or delay a deal. Khamenei explicitly rejected the US demand for zero uranium enrichment during a speech on May 20.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 20, 2025

May 20, 2025 - ISW Press

Senior Russian officials continue to deny the legitimacy of the Ukrainian president, government, and constitution and Ukraine's sovereignty despite Russian President Vladimir Putin's recent efforts to feign interest in peace negotiations to end the war. Russian Security Council Secretary Dmitry Medvedev claimed during the St. Petersburg International Legal Forum on May 20 that there are currently no Ukrainian officials with the authority to conclude a peace treaty with Russia and that Russia may need to consult Ukraine’s Constitution to identify authorized negotiation partners.

Russian Occupation Update, May 19, 2025

May 19, 2025 - ISW Press

The Russian “Voin” military-patriotic training center network has taken “patronage” over orphans from occupied Donetsk Oblast and intends to train these orphans for service in the Russian armed forces.

Iran Update, May 19, 2025

May 19, 2025 - ISW Press

Iran may have jammed vessel navigation systems in the Strait of Hormuz in order to set conditions to seize vessels that inadvertently enter Iranian territorial waters as a result of navigation issues.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 19, 2025

May 19, 2025 - ISW Press

US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin held a phone call on May 19 to discuss ceasefire and peace negotiations regarding Russia's war in Ukraine.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 18, 2025

May 18, 2025 - ISW Press

Russian forces conducted the largest single drone strike of the war against Ukraine on the night of May 17 to 18 – in disregard of US President Donald Trump's calls for Russia to stop long-range strikes against Ukraine, particularly against Kyiv Oblast.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 17, 2025

May 17, 2025 - ISW Press

The Russian delegation in Istanbul reportedly framed its demands for a final peace settlement as preconditions that Ukraine must meet before Russia will agree to a ceasefire. Most of Russia's demands are contrary to US President Donald Trump's proposed peace plan... ISW continues to assess that Russia's war aim remains full Ukrainian capitulation.

China-Taiwan Weekly Update, May 17, 2025

May 17, 2025 - ISW Press

CCP General Secretary Xi Jinping paid an official visit to Moscow for the annual Russian Victory Day and used the opportunity to highlight the strategic partnership between the People’s Republic of China (PRC) and Russia.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 16, 2025

May 16, 2025 - ISW Press

Ukrainian and Russian delegations met in Istanbul on May 16 but made little progress towards agreeing to a full ceasefire or a peace settlement to Russia's war against Ukraine.

Iran Update, May 16, 2025

May 16, 2025 - ISW Press

Israel targeted Houthi-controlled al Salif and Hudaydah ports on May 16 as part of an Israeli campaign to disrupt the Houthi ability to enable attacks targeting Israel.

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